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I do understand what JVT is saying here, of course. We don’t know that vaccinated people won’t transmit the virus. In the short-term, it makes sense. But I also think we have to be realistic from a social and psychological point of view. 1/8 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55784199
2/8 People have been clinging to hope that a vaccine will help them to lead a more normal life again. Many of the old folk have been living incredibly restrictive lives for a long time. They may feel that they don’t have a huge amount of time left.
3/8 While we don’t yet have proof that vaccinated people won’t transmit the bug, the bulk of scientific opinion seems to be that a significant reduction in transmission is pretty likely, given what’s known about other jabs.
4/8 And people aren’t stupid. They know that 88% of mortalities are associated with the groups that are among the first to be vaccinated. But the counter will be that hospitalisations and illness are still very prevalent among groups 5-9.
5/8 Well, in theory, these are the next groups to be vaccinated (notwithstanding the understandable desire to put cops, teachers, shop workers and others further up the queue). So by March, you’d hope we’ll be making inroads into the vast majority of serious illness.
6/8 Yes, of course, younger people *can* get seriously ill and long Covid is a very real issue. But what we’re talking about here is the *balance* of risk from the disease shifting decisively enough to start addressing the social, economic and psychological crisis.
7/8 JVT’s advice in the short-term is understandable and makes sense, even if it’s difficult for some vaccinated people to embrace. But with every passing week into late Feb and March, it will be harder and harder to sustain from a psychological or political perspective.
8/8 If the government wants people to understand, it must treat them as adults. And it must start talking about how much *transmission* is acceptable in a world where the risk of hospitalisation and death hopefully becomes greatly reduced.
