Read on Twitter
Toby misrepresents this paper. It doesn't look at the effects of lockdowns, it looks at the *pandemic*.
The paper says (a) the economic effects are NOT only due to lockdown and (b) that the answer is to provide more relief money, not to avoid lockdowns.
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28304/w28304.pdf
The paper says (a) the economic effects are NOT only due to lockdown and (b) that the answer is to provide more relief money, not to avoid lockdowns.
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28304/w28304.pdf
He repeats the "focused protection" canard, but nobody has ever explained how we can provide food, medical attention and other essentials to 15 million people under house arrest, while the virus infects everyone else unimpeded.
https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2021/01/eight-biggest-covid-sceptic-myths-and-why-they-re-wrong
https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2021/01/eight-biggest-covid-sceptic-myths-and-why-they-re-wrong
"Focused protection" means nearly everyone under 65 getting Covid, and lots of over-65s getting it too. That would mean literally hundreds of thousands of hospitalisations and tens of thousands of deaths - while we are giving 450k+ vaccines a day. It's utter lunacy.
Toby misunderstands the original point, anyway - which is that people will stay home to avoid getting sick, so the economic "benefits" of ending lockdowns would be muted. This isn't addressed by locking old people in their homes - younger people don't want the virus either.
The NBER paper he cites says this - it contradicts his own claims.
And I don't recall Toby *ever* calling for more economic relief for people during the pandemic. If he really is concerned about the effects of the pandemic, that's a surprising omission.
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28304/w28304.pdf
And I don't recall Toby *ever* calling for more economic relief for people during the pandemic. If he really is concerned about the effects of the pandemic, that's a surprising omission.
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28304/w28304.pdf
BTW, this is Toby's wife's account of how he acted when he thought he might get Covid. He's 57.
He seems to think everyone else would be happy to get the virus that he was utterly petrified of. If not, Lawson's original claim is true, and he is wrong.
He seems to think everyone else would be happy to get the virus that he was utterly petrified of. If not, Lawson's original claim is true, and he is wrong.
Toby also says only 388 under-60s without a pre-existing condition died of Covid.
This is because "pre-existing conditions" includes things like high blood pressure, asthma, eczema, depression.
Including those, *nine times* as many under-60s have died. https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1344598445491970049
This is because "pre-existing conditions" includes things like high blood pressure, asthma, eczema, depression.
Including those, *nine times* as many under-60s have died. https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1344598445491970049
More evidence that the virus is the main economic problem: "While overall traffic fell by 60 percentage points, legal restrictions explain only 7 percentage points of this.
"Individual choices were far more important and seem tied to fears of infection." https://twitter.com/heimbergecon/status/1353250526343913473
"Individual choices were far more important and seem tied to fears of infection." https://twitter.com/heimbergecon/status/1353250526343913473
