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Interesting phenomenon in sports when everyone says a +250 dog “shocked the world”.
One of the following has to be true, and it can’t be neither or both.
A) McGregor should have been more like a 5/1 or 10/1 favorite
B) It really wasn’t a big upset
Which is it?
One of the following has to be true, and it can’t be neither or both.
A) McGregor should have been more like a 5/1 or 10/1 favorite
B) It really wasn’t a big upset
Which is it?
The reason I find the question intriguing is because whatever conclusion you ultimately reach, you can’t ever be certain that it’s the correct answer.
Of course this requires an open mind free of bias toward fighters or whatever preconceived notions you had before the fight.
Of course this requires an open mind free of bias toward fighters or whatever preconceived notions you had before the fight.
It’s natural to read option A and immediately be put off by it. The idea that a guy who just got knocked out should have been an even bigger favorite will never register with the majority of people.
That doesn’t mean it’s not possible though, which I will get back to later.
That doesn’t mean it’s not possible though, which I will get back to later.
So let’s say it’s not A and move on to B.
How can B be true if seemingly everyone from hardcore MMA fans to UFC casuals were all shocked by the result?
Personally my jaw dropped for 10-15 seconds, and I wasn’t even heavily invested in the outcome financially or emotionally.
How can B be true if seemingly everyone from hardcore MMA fans to UFC casuals were all shocked by the result?
Personally my jaw dropped for 10-15 seconds, and I wasn’t even heavily invested in the outcome financially or emotionally.
At this point you might be left thinking... well why can’t we rule out both A and B?
That’s kinda the whole point of the exercise.
If the line was right, then why was the result so shocking?
And if it was some colossal upset, why was the line so low?
That’s kinda the whole point of the exercise.
If the line was right, then why was the result so shocking?
And if it was some colossal upset, why was the line so low?
It does have to be said that there was a steady flow of money on Conor for a full 3 months.
This is usually indicative of both sharp and square money being on the same side.
This is usually indicative of both sharp and square money being on the same side.
From here I could take this topic in many directions, like whether the super-low opening line kept the closing line from reaching it’s true end point, or if books somehow had a better idea than the public that this result would happen... but the thread is getting long already.
There’s also the issue of -how- the fight ended that could be partially contributing to the shock factor. Maybe people just couldn’t fathom Conor getting knocked out.
But in the end it’s still a fight and a Poirier KO was probably his most-likely path to victory anyway.
But in the end it’s still a fight and a Poirier KO was probably his most-likely path to victory anyway.
I feel like I may have made a mistake in the original tweet by saying that both A and B can’t be true.
After further consideration, I think that’s the answer I would go with going forward.
After further consideration, I think that’s the answer I would go with going forward.
-1000 is a bit too much, but I think -450 to -500 would have been a fair price range.
If we ran this fight 10 times in the exact same circumstances, I feel comfortable saying McGregor probably wins 8 times out of 10.
If we ran this fight 10 times in the exact same circumstances, I feel comfortable saying McGregor probably wins 8 times out of 10.
And the extent of the shock may have been overblown a bit due to McGregor’s name brand, celebrity status, and general antics.
But on actual fighting terms, maybe these guys weren’t so far apart from each other that the result warranted this type of reaction by the MMA world.
But on actual fighting terms, maybe these guys weren’t so far apart from each other that the result warranted this type of reaction by the MMA world.
