Wondering whether the national COVID data is just a blip or something more substantive?

I think there is something good going on

Cases across the U.S. really are falling...and while its only been 2 weeks, it looks real

Here’s @FT graph that shows drop in new infections

Thread

You could look at this and say – hey, we’ve been in downturns before.

True

But last 2 downturns were smaller and both were largely data artifacts (under-reporting during Thanksgiving and Christmas)

This one is different

Is it a big deal? I think so

2/7

Let’s look at data: 7-day moving average from @covid19tracking

US case counts peaked 1/11/21 at new 244K cases daily

We are now down nearly 30% to 173K

Hospitalizations peaked at 131K, now down about 8% to 120K

We know deaths lag so no surprise, deaths are flat

3/7

How else can we see that its real?

Dig into states data

One feature of pandemic has been that national numbers often move because of what is happening in a few big states

But they can hide opposite patterns in other states

Is that what is happening here?

No

4/7

California drove the latest national surge.

And indeed, CA down nearly 40% from its highs

But number of new infections are falling everywhere

Actually – here’s a shocker to me – in 49 states & DC, the number of new cases today is lower than that 2 weeks ago!

5/7

I’ve never seen such uniform drops across US

What about testing? Are we testing less?

Actually, testing up in most states

% of tests positive has fallen from 16.6% two weeks ago to 11.3%

So we are missing far fewer cases today

So big question is why? Why are we better?

6/8

Not totally sure why so much better

In some places, its clearly policy restrictions

Other places, based on google mobility data, it looks like people have pulled back activity a lot after holidays

Have we peaked permanently? Not necessarily

And here's the wrinkle

7/9

If UK & other variants weren't in the picture, I would expect that our peak was behind us with vaccine roll out

But UK variant is circulating here

And this downturn could be temporary if variant takes off

We will see new, even bigger spikes

We have to avoid that! How?

8/10

Remember: variants aren't magical new viruses

Standard public health measures still work

Also

1. Upgrade your mask. See great @taraparkerpope article

2. vaccinate like crazy -- vaccinate lots of people quickly, particularly high risk folks

9/10 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/19/well/live/covid-b117-variant-advice.html

We have a window here

Things are getting better

Gains are very very fragile

There is zero justification for states not vaccinating around the clock

We are in a race against the variant(s)

Better masks will help

Vaccinations are the name of the game at this moment

Fin