Two recent papers based on CPHS data of @_CMIE by Rosa Abraham at @azimpremjiuniv and Maurizio Bussolo of @WorldBank throw light on employment trajectory and consumption trends during the pandemic and in subsequent months. A few interesting findings (also my comments): (1/ 8)

1. 128mn jobs were lost at the peak of the lockdown in Apr-20 (vs Jan-20). LFPR fell to 36% from 43% in Jan-20. 2. Unemployment rate rose to 24%. If LFPR had remained constant, unemployment would have been a whopping 37%. (2/ 8)

2. Interesting is that after May recovery was almost as swift. By July unempl was at 8.4% & LFPR was at 41%. Since then nos. have fluctuated in a narrow band. While delayed job losses continue, as services sector continues to normalize, unempl rates will further decline. (3/ 8)

Informal wage workers, women and younger demographics workers were the worst impacted. During recovery informal wage workers have seen faster recovery than formal wage workers. However, the young and women have not been as lucky. They have lagged the overall recovery. (4/ 8)

The informal workers saw less decline in consumption (but sharpest drop in income) than formal wage workers, possibly due to the non-discretionary nature of their consumption and also better off workers couldn't spend in many areas because of lockdown restrictions. (5/ 8)

Amidst all the relative good news are 3 points of concern: 1. There has been a huge transition from daily wage and salaried workers to self-employed. Disguised unemployment is likely as many (esp men) would find it socially embarrassing to declare their status as unempl. (6/ 8)

2. Demand for jobs under MNREGA remains very high - +56% YoY in Dec-20 (35mn workers demanded MNREGA jobs). While considered as employed, the high demand is an indicator of the weaknesses still lurking in the labor market. In June 29 more people demanded jobs under MNREGA. (7/ 8)

3. If LFPR in Dec-20 had been at same level as Jan-20, then unemployment would have been 14%. I estimate that about 25mn people are still out of the labor force, given the lower LFPR. Therefore, I think these households still need govt support. (8/ 8)

Both the papers were discussed in webinars organized by CMIE and the presentations/ discussions available in its YouTube channel.