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A thread for your Sat. afternoon, for the #education + data nerds out there trying to keep track of new evidence/studies for reopening school buildings. @dahliabazzaz and I teamed up (again), this time to unpack why #WA DOH decided to ease its school reopening metrics. #tellewa
Here's the story, for those who want to skip ahead. The punchline: researchers don't have any great *new* data, but we have some studies that help schools plan to reopen in a way that limits #COVID19 spread. https://www.seattletimes.com/education-lab/why-did-inslee-and-doh-ease-guidance-for-reopening-schools-in-washington-state/
Backing up... In Dec., @dahliabazzaz and I set out to understand what types of data @WADeptHealth and other state agencies were collecting re: COVID-19 cases in schools. We found they were logging very little information publicly, and wrote about it here: https://www.seattletimes.com/education-lab/washington-state-shares-little-data-about-public-schools-and-whether-coronavirus-is-spreading-or-not/
WA isn't alone. Only a handful of states are keeping track of school-related cases, and there's no national database. Information like this -- if it was collected -- could help researchers/officials understand transmission patterns in schools + effect on community spread.
Researchers have some decent evidence, from a crowdsourced database by @ProfEmilyOster + anecdotal reports, that schools are not super spreaders. That's good news, but we still don't have a more granular picture of why some schools DO have outbreaks and others don't.
WA has had some of the most cautious school reopening guidelines nationwide. In December, that changed when state officials encouraged schools to reopen when cases in the community topped 350/100,000 residents over a two-week period (up from initial guidance of 75/100,000)
In our new story, we explore what changed Inslee's and DOH officials' minds. What we found: there's virtually no new data to support changing the metrics, but experts (including Fauci) are recommending schools reopen based on the principal that kids must get back in person.
Said @Thomasctsai "It’s not about faith in the data, it’s about what we value from a policy perspective ... the question, we’ve realized, is the consequences of keeping schools closed."
To be clear: researchers have pinned down important lessons for reopening schools, such as beginning with elementary and mandating safety measures. But most of this research was completed over the summer. New studies don't say anything vastly different from what we knew then.
What is new, tho, are a few reasons to be more cautious when reopening schools on a broad scale #1. a new more infectious variant isn't accounted for in our school research to-date (and could throw a wrench in what we "know" about school safety)
... and #2. emerging research from @CEDR_US hints schools may contribute to community spread of the virus when 76% or more students return to a building either part or full-time. This study is based on WA data (not modeling) from the fall.
This stuff is HARD to research especially when data collection/contact tracing efforts are spotty. But we'll keep reporting about what data is available + how it's coming into play as officials continue to pave the path forward for bringing education back into school buildings.
