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There are no signs of a top in terms of liquid supply change
Let's compare the current supply change environment to previous cycle tops
The current level of massive flow to illiquid wallets is unprecedented historically
Let's compare the current supply change environment to previous cycle tops
The current level of massive flow to illiquid wallets is unprecedented historically
2/ In 2013 there were 2 meaningful tops
The first one is pictured below in terms of liquid supply flows
It is clear to see that coins started flowing into liquid wallets well before the top occurred, and there were no significant flows to illiquid wallets
The first one is pictured below in terms of liquid supply flows
It is clear to see that coins started flowing into liquid wallets well before the top occurred, and there were no significant flows to illiquid wallets
3/ During the 2nd top of 2013 ( the final cycle top) one can observe that flow to liquid wallets only starts much closer to the actual top and persists strongly afterward
However, there were consistent flows to liquid wallets leading up to the top for months
However, there were consistent flows to liquid wallets leading up to the top for months
4/ During 2017, you can observe that flow to liquid wallets began well before the top and reached a peak closely following the peak in prices
The only accumulation phase occurred around the $4k price region. Once the price passed $7k there were no more significant accumulations
The only accumulation phase occurred around the $4k price region. Once the price passed $7k there were no more significant accumulations
5/ Returning to 2020, you can observe record and historic accumulation
Accumulation is present up to, during, and after the local peak in price
There is no previous cycle top which exhibited this pattern, this pattern is solely consistent with early cycle accumulation
Accumulation is present up to, during, and after the local peak in price
There is no previous cycle top which exhibited this pattern, this pattern is solely consistent with early cycle accumulation
6/
A key observation is that even after the local price peak at $42k, we did not see flows to liquid wallets as selling gripped the market
While flows to liquid wallets has always started before the peak, the majority of it usually occurs after the peak in price
A key observation is that even after the local price peak at $42k, we did not see flows to liquid wallets as selling gripped the market
While flows to liquid wallets has always started before the peak, the majority of it usually occurs after the peak in price
7/ There is zero evidence of that currently, in fact after the local price peak accumulation has only increased
Additionally, the net volume of flows to illiquid wallets is x3210 greater than the biggest accumulation window prior to 2017
Additionally, the net volume of flows to illiquid wallets is x3210 greater than the biggest accumulation window prior to 2017
