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Interesting stat in the @FT today on the number and cost of customs declaration. HMRC predict 215M forms being required for an estimated cost of £7.5B annually. https://www.ft.com/content/cc6b0d9a-d8cc-4ddb-8c57-726df018c10e
Taking the five-year period from 2014 to 2018, the UK provided an average net contribution of £6.4 billion per year (at constant 2019 prices) to the EU budget. This equates to 0.31 percent of the UK’s GNI. https://www.cgdev.org/publication/uks-fiscal-contribution-eu-budget-and-its-international-element
A quick tally of these numbers would suggest that the UK will pay a net £1.1B more per year in customs costs to be out of the EU rather than be in it. #BrexitReality #BrexitCarnage #BrexitDisaster
This €1.1B in estimated costs is just for the declarations and form filling. It does not include the additional costs of actual customs issues like delays, routing issues, auditing etc. Which is currently unknown. #BrexitReality #BrexitReality
And from the same @FT article Ian Perkes a Devon fisherman and leave voter says “Boris promised us free trade - but this isn’t free trade...We’re two weeks into the new year and we will go bankrupt”
And another interesting speculation: If it averages a competent customs person 15mins to create and submit an export or import form, and there are 215M required per year then, if my calculations are right, the UK will spend 2.3M days per year creating the forms. #BrexitRedTape
Irish @RevenueIE predicts the need for 19M new export and import declarations per year to handle #brexit #BrexitRedTape #BrexitReality
Assuming similar costs to those in the @FT this will likely total €722M per year to Irish businesses, and Irish businesses will spend 198K days per year creating the forms. #BrexitReality #BrexitReady
And again, this estimate for Irish costs does not include delays, routing issues, auditing etc. #BrexitReality
