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A quick thread on this Sunday Times story by @ShippersUnbound. I've done a bit of reporting around polling in NI on this and there are some interesting points that the casual reader won't be aware of. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/union-in-crisis-as-poll-reveals-voters-want-referendum-on-scottish-independence-and-united-ireland-wwzpdlg7b
Polling on a united Ireland has been all over the place for years. But all polls suggesting there is only a slim/no majority for NI remaining in the union can be sourced to the online panel of one pollster - the one commissioned by the Sunday Times. https://fortnightmagazine.org/articles/should-we-believe-the-opinion-polls-on-unification/
They key difference, as my article above shows, is the extent to which the pollsters found respondents who were less politically engaged and are less likely to vote in elections.
Polling nerds recognise this as a general problem in an age where people are less likely to pick up the landline, but it causes an important blindspot for Northern Ireland. It misses the increasing cohort who aren't apathetic about politics, but reject orange-green tribalism.
I haven't seen the full data for either the Scottish or NI polling in the Sunday Times, but the Scottish pollster's previous work has been bang-on in terms of Scottish Indy non-voters. https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/Wings-tables-for-publication-190121.pdf
The NI counterpart, meanwhile, rejects the very idea that this sort of polling should be weighted to non-voters.
Conclusion: the closest threat to the union is Scottish independence, which @PeterKGeoghegan wrote in The National last week (citing my story for @fortnight50). https://www.thenational.scot/news/19017070.peter-geoghegan-despite-irish-polling-scotland-biggest-threat-union/
And Scottish independence would change the conversation in Northern Ireland, as @MatthewOToole2 wrote before becoming an SDLP MLA. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/25/scotland-election-results-northen-ireland-future-independence-referendum
