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A thread about COVID situation in Israel and why the ongoing mass vaccination is a waste of country's resources and won't provide any meaningful data about the efficacy of the new vaccines.
Everything I write below are MY PERSONAL OPINIONS.
Everything I write below are MY PERSONAL OPINIONS.
Like in many other places in the world, COVID was presented as "deadly" pandemic to Israeli public and an emergency state was announced.
As of today, according to the official sources, 4000+ people died of COVID. That's a lot for a country the size of Israel.
However, if you take a step back and consider the fact that Israel's natural annual mortality stands at ~45000 people, you'll realize that we're talking about ~10% of this number.
It's like we've had approx. one additional month of natural mortality.
It's like we've had approx. one additional month of natural mortality.
There is nothing good about having excess mortality, but let's be honest: a virus that kills about a month of natural annual mortality over a span of a year isn't that scary. Unless media outlets and politicians make it look scary.
Now, everything about COVID numbers can be easily manipulated. Especially the number of "infected". However, the eventual annual mortality figures are factual (dead person is just that - dead).
So, let's see the mortality from all cases in 2020.
So, let's see the mortality from all cases in 2020.
The following graph shows weekly deaths from all cases in Israel 2017-2020.
Red vertical line is the onset of COVID.
Black vertical lines are lockdowns.
Red horizontal line is top winter mortality before COVID.
Red vertical line is the onset of COVID.
Black vertical lines are lockdowns.
Red horizontal line is top winter mortality before COVID.
Three immediate conclusions from the above graph:
1. The first lockdown was totally unnecessary.
2. The "wave" that "required" the second lockdown was very similar to what we experience every winter.
3. At no point COVID caused higher excess mortality than worst winters.
1. The first lockdown was totally unnecessary.
2. The "wave" that "required" the second lockdown was very similar to what we experience every winter.
3. At no point COVID caused higher excess mortality than worst winters.
Looking at the mutli-year progression of annual deaths, 2020 isn't an outlier by any stretch of the imagination:
Most importantly, in December 2020, approx. the same number of people died as in December 2019, and less than in December 2016.
All in all, the "one in a hundred years pandemic" in Israel was equivalent to a strong flu season. Furthermore, as of December 2020, the mortality rates are back to the expected winter mortality.
In other words: there is not enough excess mortality in Israel to test the efficacy of the new vaccines. Furthermore, regardless of the ongoing vaccination, it looks like the virus almost exhausted itself, and it won't be possible to separate this variable from the vaccines.
So, if you hear any good news about the vaccines from Israel, they won't be trustworthy. We are in a deep political crisis over here and both COVID and vaccination became instruments in ugly political games.
