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(THREAD) Why a Trump Acquittal Helps Democrats
If Senate Republicans acquit Donald J. Trump at his impeachment trial, it will be the best outcome—politically—for Democrats.
Counterintuitive, I know, but hear me out.
Here’s a medical metaphor that helps explain what I mean.
If Senate Republicans acquit Donald J. Trump at his impeachment trial, it will be the best outcome—politically—for Democrats.
Counterintuitive, I know, but hear me out.
Here’s a medical metaphor that helps explain what I mean.
If you break your leg, it won’t heal properly unless the bone is lined up and set in place soon after the injury.
If it isn’t set right after the injury, the bone may fuse back together improperly and make it impossible to walk.
If so, you’ll need to break and set it again.
If it isn’t set right after the injury, the bone may fuse back together improperly and make it impossible to walk.
If so, you’ll need to break and set it again.
Like a broken leg, Trump’s election loss and resulting sedition have deeply fractured the raggedy GOP coalition that elected and supported him for 4 years.
That damage is done. But the healing process won’t begin until the GOP recognizes it.
That damage is done. But the healing process won’t begin until the GOP recognizes it.
If 17+ Republicans help convict Trump, it will expose that deep fracture now—in a very public way.
It will be a clean break (to stick with the medical metaphor) between diehard Trump loyalists like Ron Johnson and more moderate “establishment” Republicans like Mitch McConnell.
It will be a clean break (to stick with the medical metaphor) between diehard Trump loyalists like Ron Johnson and more moderate “establishment” Republicans like Mitch McConnell.
Conviction means Trump never runs for office again. He won’t dominate the 2024 primary, if he’s relevant at all in the future GOP.
That clean break will be very painful in the short term. But it lets the party’s fracture heal properly—with plenty of time before 2024.
That clean break will be very painful in the short term. But it lets the party’s fracture heal properly—with plenty of time before 2024.
But if Republicans acquit Trump, the fracture remains. It won’t heal properly. It’ll fester as long as a 2024 Trump run looms.
The clean break will eventually happen—during the 2024 race, when loyalists unwaveringly support Trump & establishment Repubs vehemently oppose him.
The clean break will eventually happen—during the 2024 race, when loyalists unwaveringly support Trump & establishment Repubs vehemently oppose him.
Whoever wins that GOP primary battle—Trump or a moderate—will have little-to-no chance of persuading the other’s supporters to fall in line and help defeat evil Joe Biden.
There won’t be enough time. Divisions will be too deep.
It’ll be too late to set the bone properly.
There won’t be enough time. Divisions will be too deep.
It’ll be too late to set the bone properly.
The raw emotional carnage, developed over years after Trump’s acquittal—and only exposed after a brutal primary fight—will surely depress overall Republican voter turnout in the 2024 general election.
Remember, it is extremely difficult to beat the incumbent in any election.
Remember, it is extremely difficult to beat the incumbent in any election.
It’s nearly impossible when the challenger’s base is deeply divided right before the election and the candidate has high disapprovals and lots of baggage (ask Hillary 
).
And I think it is impossible when that challenger already lost to the incumbent by 7 million+ votes.
).And I think it is impossible when that challenger already lost to the incumbent by 7 million+ votes.
So, assume Republicans acquit Trump.
If he gets the 2024 GOP nomination, at best he’ll have the diehard 33% of voters who support him no matter what.
But he won’t have—or at least won’t have high turnout from—the much bigger group of moderates & independents he needs to win.
If he gets the 2024 GOP nomination, at best he’ll have the diehard 33% of voters who support him no matter what.
But he won’t have—or at least won’t have high turnout from—the much bigger group of moderates & independents he needs to win.
