Over the next few weeks, I’m going to walk through some of my favorite off-season buys & sells

I’ll be starting by looking at the WR position, & specifically @ 4 data sets:

aDot, YAC, Target % and Catch %

Today’s WR: Hollywood Brown. But is he a buy or sell? Let’s take a look

In 2020 Hollywood was one of only six players to rank in the top 24 of both aDot & T% (min 60 tgt)

The other 5?

Tyreek Hill........WR2
Calvin Ridley....WR5
DK Metcalf.......WR7
Adam Theilen..WR10
DJ Moore.........WR25

So what separated these 5 receivers from Brown this year?

Adam Theilen finished 25th in R% on the year, just missing the top 24 by one spot. He also finished 3rd in receiving touchdowns.

Theilen’s efficiency and TD making vaulted him high above Brown and were a large reason he was the WR10 on the year.

Hill, Ridley, Metcalf and Moore all finished top 24 in YAC as well as aDot & T%!

So they weren’t just targeted deep & often, they were elite @ creating YAC.

This group accounted for 3 top 7 finishes this year with Moore being the exception in-part b/c of his low TD total.

So, what does this mean for Brown? 1/2

I find it unlikely given his style of play and the way Baltimore uses him down the field that Brown will ever be as efficient as Theilen

Brown has flashed TD making ability and even finished tied for 12th in TD’s in 2020.

So what does this mean for Brown? 2/2

Brown has the speed to make plays after the catch, but lacks the strength of Hill, Ridley, Metcalf or Moore.

As Lamar is forced to become more comfortable throwing the ball, that high T% for Brown will translate into even more targets

Conclusion

Buy Hollywood Brown

Can improve efficiency (even if he’s never top 24)

Ability to improve his YAC #’s

Potential to enter that aDot, YAC, T% group

Finished the season on a high note

Affordable, some owners may even view this as a sell window