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The SNP versus the Law
The SNP is in trouble. They know it and we know it. Itâs almost certain that Nicola Sturgeon will need to resign for lying to Holyrood
This explains the frantic calls for another referendum
Brexit is done and the sky didnât fall in
The SNP versus the Law
The SNP is in trouble. They know it and we know it. Itâs almost certain that Nicola Sturgeon will need to resign for lying to Holyrood
This explains the frantic calls for another referendum
Brexit is done and the sky didnât fall in
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This removes their number one BĂȘte Noire. A Disastrous hard Brexit
They were banking on that happening. There will be, and are, difficulties with the new trading arrangements but these will play out over years and will be sorted one way or another
This removes their number one BĂȘte Noire. A Disastrous hard Brexit
They were banking on that happening. There will be, and are, difficulties with the new trading arrangements but these will play out over years and will be sorted one way or another
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The Law
As it stands, the SNP cannot call another referendum without the permission of the UK Parliament
Some people dispute this, including many in the SNP
So. Whatâs the alternative?
The could call a non binding non legal referendum but whatâs the point
Unionist will
The Law
As it stands, the SNP cannot call another referendum without the permission of the UK Parliament
Some people dispute this, including many in the SNP
So. Whatâs the alternative?
The could call a non binding non legal referendum but whatâs the point
Unionist will
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boycott it and non SNP councils will refuse to participate
Although thatâs their latest plan, itâs a non starter
In the absence of a S30 order their only recourse is to test the competence to hold another referendum in the Supreme Court
This is fraught with dangers
boycott it and non SNP councils will refuse to participate
Although thatâs their latest plan, itâs a non starter
In the absence of a S30 order their only recourse is to test the competence to hold another referendum in the Supreme Court
This is fraught with dangers
5/
They have to balance the possibility of getting a positive SC judgement against getting a negative judgement
Iâll start with the negative judgement first
Were the Scot Gov to go to the SC they would risk not one but two massively disastrous and fatal outcomes
They have to balance the possibility of getting a positive SC judgement against getting a negative judgement
Iâll start with the negative judgement first
Were the Scot Gov to go to the SC they would risk not one but two massively disastrous and fatal outcomes
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Were the SC to pass judgement that only Westminster can authorise another referendum, not only does that make it impossible for another referendum to be legally held but the Scot Gov would have explicitly accepted that the SC is the final arbiter of the Law in the UK
Were the SC to pass judgement that only Westminster can authorise another referendum, not only does that make it impossible for another referendum to be legally held but the Scot Gov would have explicitly accepted that the SC is the final arbiter of the Law in the UK
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There would be no route to another referendum. Not via the court and not via WM
That would then remove the very reason for the SNPâs existence. For, if they cannot secure independence, what are they for?
You might think that that would be the worse possible outcome but no
There would be no route to another referendum. Not via the court and not via WM
That would then remove the very reason for the SNPâs existence. For, if they cannot secure independence, what are they for?
You might think that that would be the worse possible outcome but no
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Itâs not. Thereâs an even worse outcome for the SNP
They go to the SC and get a judgement that they can authorise and legally carry out another referendum
Although WM could legislate to over rule this judgement itâs highly unlikely they would
How could it be worse then?
Itâs not. Thereâs an even worse outcome for the SNP
They go to the SC and get a judgement that they can authorise and legally carry out another referendum
Although WM could legislate to over rule this judgement itâs highly unlikely they would
How could it be worse then?
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Economics
Scotlandâs economy is in its worse position (pre Covid) in our lifetimes. Our deficits have never ever been this high before and Covid is about to make it a lot worse
Hereâs how it could get a lot worse
The SNP accept that Scotland would have to accept its share
Economics
Scotlandâs economy is in its worse position (pre Covid) in our lifetimes. Our deficits have never ever been this high before and Covid is about to make it a lot worse
Hereâs how it could get a lot worse
The SNP accept that Scotland would have to accept its share
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of the National debt but theyâve never explicitly laid that out. They keep clinging to the idea that Scotland has no debt
In the event of another referendum in which the SNP win a mandate for independence the Tories would need to go into all out attack mode
The pandering
of the National debt but theyâve never explicitly laid that out. They keep clinging to the idea that Scotland has no debt
In the event of another referendum in which the SNP win a mandate for independence the Tories would need to go into all out attack mode
The pandering
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to Scotland that theyâve had to do for years and years would no longer be viable. The SNP is driven by two things. A desire for independence and a pathological hatred of all things Tory
The Tories could finally take the gloves off and show the Scots what real power is
to Scotland that theyâve had to do for years and years would no longer be viable. The SNP is driven by two things. A desire for independence and a pathological hatred of all things Tory
The Tories could finally take the gloves off and show the Scots what real power is
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In the event of a bad breakup ( itâs likely to be bad due to the SNPâs hatred of all things Tory) the SNP would threaten to renege on taking our share of the debt
Since that threat is real the Tories have numerous options
Their number one weapon is to tell the SNP that
In the event of a bad breakup ( itâs likely to be bad due to the SNPâs hatred of all things Tory) the SNP would threaten to renege on taking our share of the debt
Since that threat is real the Tories have numerous options
Their number one weapon is to tell the SNP that
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if Scotland votes for independence all financial support, via the fiscal transfer, would stop on the day of the vote, not the day of independence
In addition, all tax raising by the HMRC will immediately cease and all benefits will immediately cease on the day of the vote.
if Scotland votes for independence all financial support, via the fiscal transfer, would stop on the day of the vote, not the day of independence
In addition, all tax raising by the HMRC will immediately cease and all benefits will immediately cease on the day of the vote.
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Thereâs a very good reason to make this implicit threat if the SNP play hard ball
The Scottish Government doesnât have the ability to either collect all taxes or pay all pensions and benefits. This in itself would need to be tackled. This would likely take a couple of years
Thereâs a very good reason to make this implicit threat if the SNP play hard ball
The Scottish Government doesnât have the ability to either collect all taxes or pay all pensions and benefits. This in itself would need to be tackled. This would likely take a couple of years
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to put these systems into place and test them. That in itself would delay the vote for a couple of years
The Scot Gov would also have to go to the markets and try and borrow money to plus the massive hole that would be left on the day of the vote
Thatâs no easy task
to put these systems into place and test them. That in itself would delay the vote for a couple of years
The Scot Gov would also have to go to the markets and try and borrow money to plus the massive hole that would be left on the day of the vote
Thatâs no easy task
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The UK would accept no liability for these loans and even if the vote was no the liability for these loans would fall squarely on the Scottish Government. That in itself is a legal minefield of who is liable fir this borrowing.
The UK would accept no liability for these loans and even if the vote was no the liability for these loans would fall squarely on the Scottish Government. That in itself is a legal minefield of who is liable fir this borrowing.
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So. You can already see that getting a legal sanction to carry out another ref is even worse than not getting this sanction
The English have had to put up with the Scots complaining for decades and decades. At some point they will just say enough
Even if the above was
So. You can already see that getting a legal sanction to carry out another ref is even worse than not getting this sanction
The English have had to put up with the Scots complaining for decades and decades. At some point they will just say enough
Even if the above was
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carried out, Scotland would still need to accept the liability for its share of the national debt. Scotland has run up more debt than itâs legal share so even just paying itâs share is a win win
The separatist Scots massively underestimate the disdain that the southern
carried out, Scotland would still need to accept the liability for its share of the national debt. Scotland has run up more debt than itâs legal share so even just paying itâs share is a win win
The separatist Scots massively underestimate the disdain that the southern
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Tories have for them. They have had to bite their lips for years but in an all out economic conflict between the UK and Scotland there would only be one winner and it wouldnât be us
Tories have for them. They have had to bite their lips for years but in an all out economic conflict between the UK and Scotland there would only be one winner and it wouldnât be us
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Some might see this as a brutal assault on Scottish democracy but since the SNP are constantly saying that we would be better off with independence then the UK refusing to collect taxes and issue benefits would be no problem for us. We could simply do it ourselves
Some might see this as a brutal assault on Scottish democracy but since the SNP are constantly saying that we would be better off with independence then the UK refusing to collect taxes and issue benefits would be no problem for us. We could simply do it ourselves