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1/Some people look at the amazing cost declines in solar power and batteries and ask "Where's the productivity growth?"
In this post, I answer that question: "It's coming." https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/answering-the-techno-pessimists-part-a3b
In this post, I answer that question: "It's coming." https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/answering-the-techno-pessimists-part-a3b
2/It's true that solar, for example, has come down in cost by a truly stunning amount.
This is a LOG plot. Check out the y-axis!
This is a LOG plot. Check out the y-axis!
3/Some people look at this graph and ask "So, where's the productivity growth?"
Honey, you gotta actually BUILD the solar before it does anything. https://applieddivinitystudies.com/stagnation/
Honey, you gotta actually BUILD the solar before it does anything. https://applieddivinitystudies.com/stagnation/
4/Solar installation is ramping up at an exponential rate:
But that's from a very low base. It's still only maybe 3% of global electricity generation!
But that's from a very low base. It's still only maybe 3% of global electricity generation!
5/As of 2019, solar and wind together were 2/3 of new installed electricity generation. https://about.bnef.com/blog/solar-and-wind-reach-67-of-new-power-capacity-added-globally-in-2019-while-fossil-fuels-slide-to-25/
6/Even the most optimistic forecasts for solar are probably way too conservative (they have been in the past). https://twitter.com/ramez/status/875442305297141760
7/"B...but...but solar is intermittent!", cry the skeptics.
LOL, that's fine. It's so cheap now that we can afford to overbuild, so that we have plenty solar power on cloudy days and during the winter. https://qz.com/1950381/the-case-for-producing-way-more-solar-energy-than-we-need/
LOL, that's fine. It's so cheap now that we can afford to overbuild, so that we have plenty solar power on cloudy days and during the winter. https://qz.com/1950381/the-case-for-producing-way-more-solar-energy-than-we-need/
8/And at night?
Batteries.
Did I mention that batteries are getting exponentially cheaper as well?
Batteries.
Did I mention that batteries are getting exponentially cheaper as well?
9/Speaking of batteries, we're just about reaching the point where electric cars will begin replacing our auto fleet. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/22/electric-vehicles-close-to-tipping-point-of-mass-adoption
10/Automakers are starting to cancel gasoline-powered models. https://www.electrive.com/2021/01/22/audi-announces-end-of-combustion-a4-a6-a8-models/
11/OK, so in the next two decades, as we install solar and batteries at exponentially increasing scale, these technologies will have a chance to make a big real difference in our world.
But installation isn't sufficient for them to raise productivity. There's one other piece...
But installation isn't sufficient for them to raise productivity. There's one other piece...
12/To really raise productivity, solar and batteries don't just have to be cheap enough to replace fossil fuels.
They need to be so cheap that they provide SIGNIFICANTLY CHEAPER ENERGY than fossil fuels.
Cheap energy is what will drive productivity growth.
They need to be so cheap that they provide SIGNIFICANTLY CHEAPER ENERGY than fossil fuels.
Cheap energy is what will drive productivity growth.
13/Fortunately, the trends look unstoppable. Solar and batteries (and probably wind, and maybe other storage technologies) WILL provide much cheaper energy than fossil fuels...eventually.
14/Here's a summary of the latest trends in solar costs, via the incomparable @ramez. https://rameznaam.com/2020/05/14/solars-future-is-insanely-cheap-2020/
15/In fact, cheap energy might be uniquely powerful in terms of driving productivity growth, even relative to other types of technology! https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-im-so-excited-about-solar-and
16/...And of course this is all IN ADDITION to the fact that solar and batteries are much more sustainable than fossil fuels and hurt the climate far less, which allows productivity *today* to be matched by productivity over the *long term*.
17/So the techno-pessimists are wrong about solar and batteries. This is a true technological revolution, it is still ongoing, and it will touch all of our lives in big important ways.
(end) https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/answering-the-techno-pessimists-part-a3b
(end) https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/answering-the-techno-pessimists-part-a3b
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