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In this video, @AgileBob suggests that breaking stories into small enough pieces that a team accomplishes 6 to 10 per sprint solves the problems around estimation. I disagree with this conclusion in a number of ways. https://twitter.com/agileforall/status/1352654809795604480
I have no problem with the approach of slicing stories small and counting them, but the "business" still wants to know when some significant usable functionality will be ready. They've always had need to look further into the future than the next sprint.
Relying solely on the count of user stories to look months into the future requires breaking the work down into user stories months before they are to be worked on. This locks in decisions way too early. It makes it harder, not easier, to pick out which stories are not needed.
Putting all that effort into detailing a backlog makes it hard for organizations to rethink that backlog and shift directions. They've got a sunk cost to protect, and they don't want to go over that same ground again. Also, it's hard to separate the assumptions of the two passes.
I've observed organizations where good ideas were ignored with comments like "we can't split the story; the backlog has already been approved by management."
This leads to the backlog becoming the plan, and the developers expected to work the plan in true PMI style.
This leads to the backlog becoming the plan, and the developers expected to work the plan in true PMI style.
There are other options available. They include estimates, though not necessarily at the story level. They also include learning from incorrect, or as I prefer, obsolete estimates.
They include "Business people and developers [working] together daily throughout the project."
They include "Business people and developers [working] together daily throughout the project."
I describe options in my @pragprog book, Software Estimation Without Guessing ( https://pragprog.com/titles/gdestimate/software-estimation-without-guessing/), and I'll be happy to have conversations with you about your situation.
