Read on Twitter
In Denmark, where they DNA-sequence *every* positive COVID case, the B117 variant is growing 70% per week, yes, per week, despite strict lockdown. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/uk-variant-covid-denmark/2021/01/22/ddfaf420-5453-11eb-acc5-92d2819a1ccb_story.html?tid=ss_tw
This is happening while cases actually drop overall, giving a false sense of security.
In other words, a tsunami is coming.
Exponential growth means you can't wait until the problem is evident.
This shows the additional deaths a strain like B117 can cause - without even accounting for overloaded hospitals being unable to deliver same level of care.
Worse, research is starting to suggest B117 is both more contagious *and* more deadly. https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-693bb5e5fab573efc4011fa6ad5dbb47
Higher mortality finding is still in dispute, though. Some experts aren't convinced. https://reaction.life/30-per-cent-more-lethal-claim-rests-on-fragile-and-uncertain-evidence-says-nervtag-member/
All this is bad economically, too. It will likely mean more businesses closing and people staying home whether governments order it or not. Terrible for already-struggling travel sector, restaurants, etc. More fiscal aid will be needed, raising government debt burdens.
And to cap it all, experience in Manaus, Brazil, which last year was thought to have reached herd immunity because 76% of population had been infected, says immunity either fades fast or offers less protection from new variants. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/01/21/958953434/reinfections-more-likely-with-new-coronavirus-variants-evidence-suggests
Portugal looking similar to Denmark. https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1352342564263882761?s=20
Important read. Ben Hunt was one of the first to see all this coming last year. He's been on target throughout. https://twitter.com/EpsilonTheory/status/1352991118103818242?s=20
Also see this by my colleague @JohnFMauldin, who said a week ago these new Covid variants could be a game-changer for the global economy. https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/the-grip-tightens
One problem with Great Barrington/Sweden-like "shield the vulnerable and let it rip" strategies is that allowing more reproduction gives the virus more chances to mutate in possibly problematic ways. https://twitter.com/JMoore1123/status/1353057376534810627?s=20
A glimpse of what B117 can do. https://twitter.com/picardonhealth/status/1353100743855763457?s=20
Here's my article pulling together the info from this thread. https://www.mauldineconomics.com/connecting-the-dots/whats-the-worst-that-could-happen
More on Manaus and the P.1 Brazil variant, which this week appeared in the US. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/01/27/961108577/why-scientists-are-very-worried-about-the-variant-from-brazil
"None of the explanations on the table are good." https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1353911015432474624?s=20
Virologist is optimistic vaccines can be updated to handle variants but...
"I don't think there's going to be a single solution that just comes along in 2021 that says, 'That's it, we're done.'"
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/01/27/961108577/why-scientists-are-very-worried-about-the-variant-from-brazil
"I don't think there's going to be a single solution that just comes along in 2021 that says, 'That's it, we're done.'"
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/01/27/961108577/why-scientists-are-very-worried-about-the-variant-from-brazil
