Read on Twitter
1. Yemen, Middle East, and NatSec watchers: With the Biden Administration undergoing a review of the FTO designation of the Houthis, I want to highlight some striking contradictions relating to the Yemen war. #thread
2. Many of these contradictions are not reconcilable - which makes Yemen, its humanitarian and economic despair, and the overlapping wars a particularly challenging complex crisis. I caution anyone who thinks there are simple answers, to think twice.
3. The Houthis aren’t some civil society organization or liberation movement seeking to free the oppressed. They are a brutal, authoritarian militia that seeks to impose its will on the Yemeni people by terror, torture, and brute force.
4. The Houthis have an ideology that is inconsistent with democracy, freedom, liberty, and modernity. The Houthis are also the one party that can change the trajectory of the humanitarian crisis tomorrow.
5. They could simply open access and facilitate an international humanitarian response. The Houthis won’t - they simply refuse to alleviate the suffering of millions of Yemeni people within their area of control.
6. Pompeo’s FTO designation which is now being reviewed by the Biden administration raises two questions: (A) Are the Houthis a terror organization that threaten US interests?
7. (B) Do the benefits of the FTO sanctions of the entire Houthi movement outweigh the benefits? The current FTO designation includes anyone remotely affiliated with the Houthis such as teachers and health care workers in a Houthi controlled ministry.
8. Anecdotally, at least, the Yemeni diaspora and humanitarian community seem to have opposing views to the FTO designation. This division is important to recognize as the Biden administration develops a new Yemen policy and reviews the FTO designation.
9. The Yemeni diaspora, in many instances, support the FTO designation of the Houthis because they rightly see the militia as a terror organization inflicting harm on millions. Their analysis often stops there.
10. They don’t focus, in my opinion, on the costs of the FTO designation which could potentially stop all commercial trade, banking, and humanitarian assistance without well constructed and predictable exemptions.
11. It’s also not crystal clear to me that the entire Houthi movement is a real and substantial threat to the US (other the humanitarian interests).
12. On balance though, it’s reasonable to conclude that Houthi military and political senior and mid level leadership may constitute such a threat but that sanctions need to be highly tailored to those leaders.
13. With respect to the humanitarian community, NGOs and the UN do accurately assess the consequences of the FTO designation on millions of people but they understate the brutality of the Houthi militia as an org that terrorizes its people, steals aid, and crushes civil society.
14. A Biden policy will have to recognize the differing views of Yemenis who know first hand Houthi terror and the global interest to find mechanisms that avert a famine in Yemen. This is not easy. If the Biden team gets it right, they’ll probably disappoint both camps.
15. Of course, the Houthis aren’t the only bad actors in Yemen. ISIS and Al Qaeda use Yemeni space to perpetuate its terror. The Southern Transitional Council is a secessionist movement.
16. The Hadi government has virtually no control over the country, has no governing mandate, and is riddled with corruption. The Biden administration will have to hold the Hadi government accountable for its vast failures.
17. One final note internal to Yemen. The war economy fuels conflict rather than builds a virtuous upcycle. Competing forces are shredding Yemen - and frankly there is no end in sight. The war itself will only end once the Yemeni powers decide to end it, not before.
18. Regional and western powers have different assumptions - but suffice to say, no policy or action to date after nearly six years has served to end the suffering of millions.
19. On to the Saudis, another stark contradiction. The Saudi led coalition in Yemen has failed. After all these years, the Houthis continue to gain ground, the Hadi gov't remains irrelevant, and the Saudis’ bear enormous responsibility for the suffering of millions in Yemen.
20. There may have been a time where, in theory, when the use of US weapons and intelligence served as a check on Saudi’s worst instincts in this war. But after all of these years, it’s clear the Saudis are contributing to the conflict in a way which is devastating.
21. Their use of American weapons and intelligence is now counterproductive to US national interests.
And yet, the Saudis have the right to defend their southern border from cross border attacks. There can be no doubt that Iran serves to destabilize the Saudi southern flank.
And yet, the Saudis have the right to defend their southern border from cross border attacks. There can be no doubt that Iran serves to destabilize the Saudi southern flank.
22. The Houthis have launched hundreds of rockets, missiles and mortar rounds into Saudi Arabia, threatening major cities and infrastructure.
23. After 6 years, the Saudis are probably at greater risk from the south. Clearly their efforts to stabilize Yemen have failed. They have not tried the inverse to war however.
24. Saudi - and its vast economic power - could facilitate cross border trade and commerce in a way which takes the allure for young men in the north to decide that Houthi military ventures are not in their interest.
25. The Saudis have a theory of change. Military and economic pressure on the Houthis will yield political change. After 6 years, this theory has failed.
26. This may be the time to try a new theory of change - economic opportunity in the north will deflate the Houthi movement and lift millions out of near famine conditions.
27. The Biden policy review - not just of the FTO designation but of US involvement in Yemen - may not be able to reconcile the many contradictions of the conflict. Humility may suggest that America not exacerbate suffering and risk a famine by this FTO designation.
28. The US should also consider structured, and concurrent military disengagement including a draw down on arms sales.
29. At the same time, US advice and experience on expanding economic opportunity in Yemen and specific steps to improve household purchasing power may be the best means to reduce suffering and create a virtuous upcycle.
30. There are no easy answers in Yemen - the only foreseeable future is that millions, sadly, are likely to continue to suffer for this endless war. For better or worse, Pompeo’s FTO designation has propelled a much needed, top to bottom review of America’s Yemen policy.
