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Updated with latest numbers and mentions of protests that I've found in national and local media.
As always, handle critically. The number of protesters is notoriously difficult to estimate and these come from very different sources (as indicated).
#Navalny #navalnyprotests https://twitter.com/NoYardstick/status/1352985802037465090
As always, handle critically. The number of protesters is notoriously difficult to estimate and these come from very different sources (as indicated).
#Navalny #navalnyprotests https://twitter.com/NoYardstick/status/1352985802037465090
. @meduzaproject & @OvdInfo has another useful map, showing the number of arrests made: https://meduza.io/feature/2021/01/23/skolko-lyudey-zaderzhali-na-aktsiyah-svobodu-navalnomu-v-raznyh-gorodah-rossii
We've seen at least three different figures for Moscow. According to this conservative estimate with the Mapchecking software, there were at least 25,000 people protesting in the capital. https://twitter.com/skazal_on/status/1353033918170198016
Today's numbers are remarkable: comparable to the 2017 protests against Medvedev, only now there's a pandemic, it's colder, repression is much harsher and Russians were not asked to protest against a widely disliked non-starter. Solid turnout in the regions (more on this later)
We'll have to see if Navalny's team is able to replicate this turnout in a week (undoubtedly there will be a lot of additional arrests in coming days to discourage people). They seem to be trying to go the Khabarovsk/Belarus way. But today itself sd make the Kremlin uncomfortable
One important question is not only how many people turn out in the coming weeks but also how much Navalny's arrest and his initiatives (e.g. smart voting) become part of the political agenda and how much control over the agenda the Kremlin will manage to preserve.
If in September the authorities are anxious enough to commit egregious vote rigging on the scale of Belarus (or last year's constitutional plebiscite), these protests can erupt very easily. See below for the second part of a 2-part analysis. http://www.noyardstick.com/?p=848
This number keeps climbing with a frightening speed. https://twitter.com/evangershkovich/status/1353046412607451137
Revised downwards. But I have little doubt that we will see more arrests in the coming days. https://twitter.com/OvdInfo/status/1353047606616797185?s=19
A sober look at what today's mobilization and the authorities' response mean and what the Kremlin's options are. https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1353045940358275072?s=19
Based on early commentaries about the protests, here's what the questions seem to be:
- Were the protests more about Navalny or about something else (i.e. who made up their constituency)?
- Given the circumstances and the mood, is today more significant than 2027/18 was?
- Were the protests more about Navalny or about something else (i.e. who made up their constituency)?
- Given the circumstances and the mood, is today more significant than 2027/18 was?
- Why didn't we see more young people?
- In which regions was turnout higher than 4 us ago?
- What counts as success for the opposition in the coming weeks/months? And for the Kremlin? Who has more unused reserves and who will feel like they need to make a harder push?
- In which regions was turnout higher than 4 us ago?
- What counts as success for the opposition in the coming weeks/months? And for the Kremlin? Who has more unused reserves and who will feel like they need to make a harder push?
