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Rewilding advocates like @BenGoldsmith and @Rebirding1 have done a great deal to raise public awareness and enthusiasm for reintroductions and the potential for ecological restoration, but we have to be careful of building false expectations. A thread
1/19
1/19
Why does this matter? @BenGoldsmith claims: "Without predators the ecosystem is wildly out of kilter. We need the lynx back." And @Rebirding1 suggests "Lynx hammer foxes" but I worry such claims can be misleading or place too much emphasis on how we might materially benefit. 2/19
While studies from Norway & Sweden suggest lynx predation of foxes can be significant (and suppression of foxes can benefit capercaillie, black grouse and mt. hares), in more productive agricultural landscapes (like ours) foxes may simply be too numerous for lynx to control. 3/19
In a Swiss study where foxes were the 3rd most common food item and mother lynx in particular appeared to target foxes, predation nevertheless had no effect. Overall an average 4.8 foxes were killed per lynx per year but fox numbers still increased alongside increasing lynx. 4/19
In Yellowstone, before wolves were reintroduced, bears, cougars, coyotes, bobcats and even a few Canada lynx were resident. Yet exploding deer numbers were still damaging the ecosystem. Expecting a few Eurasian lynx to single-handedly reduce #deer here may be optimistic! 5/19
In Sweden, lynx predation has had no effect on roe deer habitat selection leading scientists to note that "the 'landscape of fear' does not apply to all landscapes or all predator-prey relationships". Elsewhere, initial impacts have declined and then stabilised over time. 6/19
The greatest impacts tend to occur where initial deer densities are low, but when increasing lynx are combined with intense human hunting and stochastic events such as a harsh winter, lynx predation can impact even high density populations. Nature is hard to predict! 7/19
Of course, lynx MIGHT reduce some deer numbers in some places. They have done elsewhere - even creating conflict with human hunters. But any impact lynx might have will be highly localised. Lynx will not address excess deer numbers nationwide. 8/19
And despite the popularity of the "wolves change rivers" narrative, the real effect of wolves in Yellowstone is still debated by scientists. Wolves were not the only or even the major driver affecting elk numbers. See https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/scientists-debunk-myth-that-yellowstone-wolves-changed-entire-ecosystem-flow-of-rivers/3499889/xx and https://www.nps.gov/yell/learn/upload/YELLOWSTONE-SCIENCE-24-1-WOLVES.pdf 9/19
Furthermore, wolves have proven incapable of regulating Yellowstone's bison population which are instead still culled. https://www.nps.gov/yell/learn/management/bison-management.htm In reality few herbivores are regulated by predators, but instead by food availability - what ecologists call bottom-up regulation. 10/19
That's not to say reintroducing lynx couldn't yield ecological benefits. It is just to highlight the risk of over-promising and under-delivering. If reintroduced lynx fail to reduce deer or fox numbers as suggested, does a major justification for their presence disappear? 11/19
Equally, pretending lynx pose no threat to livestock in arguing for their reintroduction means that if they are reintroduced and they do then kill a few sheep - as is quite possible - farmers would be entitled to cry foul. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/29/will-reintroduced-lynx-hunt-britains-sheep 12/19
In fairness, this risk has been acknowledged by @Rebirding1 but too many rewilders have yet to get to grips with this fact, encouraged by the likes of @LynxUKTrust to play down predation risk or suggest that mitigating the threat might be easy. 13/19 https://twitter.com/Rebirding1/status/1320839274317647873
We need to walk a careful path, challenging scaremongers (Norway's sheep losses are likely exaggerated & their system very different) without being deaf to valid concerns. The UK has more sheep than any other lynx range state and shepherds work differently to e.g. Romania. 14/19
We don't employ round-the-clock shepherding, livestock-guarding dogs or night time corralling. If we want UK shepherds to do this they will need significant help & they might still baulk at such change. Compensation may not promote tolerance either! https://hughwebsterauthor.wordpress.com/2018/11/10/why-compensating-eu-farmers-for-livestock-losses-may-not-be-a-good-idea/ 15/19
There are other challenges that make reintroduction unsuitable in many/most places. Vehicular collisions and road/rail infrastructure are a major threat. Could reintroduced lynx survive in congested southern England? Would it even be ethical to try? 16/19
Lastly, we must be realistic and engage all stakeholders. No carnivore reintroduction can be attempted without provision for lethal control if conflict with human interests escalates too far. Unreasonable condemnation of such action discourages support from the start. 17/19
We need to recognise potential costs and not exaggerate potential gains. But we also need to place more emphasis on arguing that the lynx is a missing part of our native fauna and deserves to be reintroduced simply to enrich our landscape; to value wonder as much as profit. 18/19
PS. Much of the research informing this thread was drawn from @ScotlandTBP's excellent book - The Lynx and Us - written by Dr David Hetherington. Essential reading if you're interested in lynx or the issues surrounding its possible reintroduction. 19/19 https://www.scotlandbigpicture.com/Store/books/the-lynx-and-us
I think this sentimentsums up the best argument for reintroducing lynx - it’s not based on ecosystem services, benefits to foresters, or even increases to biodiversity - but on the enriching of the human experience. https://mobile.twitter.com/WhiteTipM/status/1353006830407004160
sums up the best argument for reintroducing lynx - it’s not based on ecosystem services, benefits to foresters, or even increases to biodiversity - but on the enriching of the human experience. https://mobile.twitter.com/WhiteTipM/status/1353006830407004160
