PPP left exports at $24.8 bil in its last year. In 2013/14, PMLN’s first year, it beat that figure & achieved $25.1 bil. Next year it got just over $24 bil. The year after that was tough for trade as commodity & oil prices declined and both our imports & exports declined. 1/8

Pak’s exports hovered around $22 bil for those two years only to bounce back to $24.8 bil in PMLN’s last year (17/18)

After a huge devaluation, and pontificating about exports for years, PTI managed to decrease exports in its first year (18/19) by $500 mil to $24.3 billion. 2/8

Its export performance was again down in 19/20 to $22.5 bil but of course covid reduced Pak’s exports in the last four months.

In the first half of the current year, exports stand at $11.8 bil, about 5% below last year’s level. 3/8

In fact it now seems clear from the overall pattern that exports this year will be plus/minus 3% of what was achieved by PMLN in 2017/18. After a 40% devaluation this seem like a very poor performance.

Given the direct cash given to people in America 4/8

and monetary easing in Europe, and the difficulties in going to restaurants and other recreation places, spending in the West on home textiles is increasing rapidly. But is Pakistan poised to take advantage?

In the last three months as State Bank has revalued the currency 5/8

from Rs 168 to a dollar to Rs 160 to a dollar, the federal government has actually made gas and electricity more expensive. The price of domestic gas for export industry has increased from Rs 750 to Rs 920 and for local industry it is Rs 1080. 6/8

Base power tariff have just been raised by Rs 1.95 per unit and of course we have already get fuel adjustment charges every quarter.

On top of that the government has announced that it will stop supplying gas to domestic industry 7/8

from February 1, and to export industry from March 1. (Two and six weeks notice only). How will industry cope remains to be seen but it is likely that these energy policies will result in disappointing export and LSM figures.
8/8.