Regarding vaccination speed and comparisons between countries (especially in the EU), some people say that "it doesn't matter how fast you start, what matters is crossing the finish line at the same time".
But that's not at all how an epidemic works. Quick explanation below.
This claim can be summarized by the following chart: both the yellow and the black country arrive at 100% coverage by the same date.
But the country in yellow started very quickly and slowed down, while the country in black started very slowly and then strongly accelerated.
The idea that those two trajectories are equivalent works for many things in life.
For example, if two marathon runners follow those trajectories during a race, they will indeed cross the finish line at the same time, and neither of the two strategies can be said to be "better".
But during an epidemic, what happens in the middle of the chart (while vaccination coverage is still incomplete) is not irrelevant at all.
As the last year has shown, those months will bring new "waves" of the virus with more infections, more hospitalizations, more deaths.
By February, the yellow country has vaccinated 50% of its population — presumably the most vulnerable.
By comparison, the black country only reaches that same level in August.
That's a 6-month difference, which (as we know too well) will probably result in many avoidable deaths.
The optimal strategy is not to get to a specific target "by a certain date" without any preference for how it's done over time. Available doses should be administered as fast as possible, even if it means that vaccinations temporarily stop until more doses are produced.
You can follow @redouad.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled:

By continuing to use the site, you are consenting to the use of cookies as explained in our Cookie Policy to improve your experience.