David Friedman on semi-efficient markets

IMO your success is highly dependant on who is participating in the market

Stocks? = 99% of people will perform better just buying ETFs as it is nearly impossible for retail to find a consistent edge

1/6
Crypto? = I believe active users who can see which projects are likely to lead their niche & possibly establish moats will outperform the index or shotgun approach

These are the people who knew to preference $AAVE > $COMP & $ETH > ghost L1s https://twitter.com/degenspartan/status/1350657948490493954
I have personally performed the best by mid-long term investing in high conviction spot holdings of applications that I already used - or in the case of $SNX - thought will be widely used in the future (execution risk as most features were yet to be shipped) https://twitter.com/arthur_0x/status/1352499765007716354
Narratives have also been very important

After surviving the 2018-20 bear market - I was lucky enough to find Ethereum twitter after spending most my time in crypto trading twitter - where the majority were still BTC maxis either trading on mex or alt/btc pairs
When ‘DeFi’ became the new buzz word early last year, many dismissed it as another fad or altszn

Only those deep in the Ethereum ecosystem knew that this time it was different

We had literally found the future of finance

> But they didn’t know
‘Altcoins’ now gave you a share of the cash flows generated by applications that had already developed a large user base

This was a very strong narrative compared to what alts used to be

But the market at large was not aware & they were still not even in the top 50 by marketcap
If crypto keeps growing at the current rate, in a few years it may be harder for retail to find an edge & outperform the market

But until the core DeFi projects are sitting comfy in the top ranks & ghost L1s are rekt - IMO we are still early & can easily outperform BTC & indexs https://twitter.com/gatheringgwei/status/1350297381456134146
You can follow @GatheringGwei.
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