Plenty of angst now re: vaccine shortages, "scariant" variants, what awaits in this winter of relative discontent & beyond. Let's unpack this to maintain some hope for the future. There is plenty to look forward to 1/

What of vaccine shortages? By any measure this is very disappointing. But bear in mind, it's nothing short of miraculous that we have even 1, never mind several safe, effective options in first quarter of 2021 2/

Few people would have bet on successful vaccine development, never mind approval & distribution a mere 9 months into a pandemic due to a completely novel virus we didn't know existed barely a year ago 3/

But human nature says now that we're here, we're tired, we've lost, suffered enough. We may as well finish the job with the miracle antidote(s) and anything short of this can only be deemed a failure. Neither true nor accurate. 4/

Remember first that several regions around the world managed to not only control, but recover successfully from this pandemic, socially, economically & otherwise, long before the advent of vaccine development & distribution. Not an aberration. 5/

Australia, NZ, Taiwan, S Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Uruguay, even Wuhan, the original epicenter of this pandemic, have all controlled transmission in the pre-vaccine era. Not easy. Not impossible either. 6/

Some elements did favor control in these regions. Early travel restrictions in islands (Aus, NZ), massive contact tracing programs (SK, Uruguay) are examples. Tough restrictions on freedom no doubt in many regions. But all PRE-vaccine. 7/

Different cultures, societies, demographics, governing political ideologies, GDP, economy bases. Same result PRE-vaccine 8/

We will be dealing with vaccine shortages for next 3-4 wks. Sadly this will cost lives. But restrictive measures ARE now showing +ve trends in Ontario, Quebec by many metrics, incl Rt, rates of hospital, ICU admissions. This is good news! 9/

But what about those scary variants, the "scariants"? British b.1.1.7, S African, Brazilian strains all more transmissible (range 30-70%). British doesn't seem to cause worse disease, mortality, likely susceptible to vaccines. Jury still out on others 10/

BUT, even if new variants are resistant to existing vaccines, possible they can be re-engineered (esp mRNA) to target more effectively. Won't happen overnight but very much a possibility within reach. New bullets to reload. 11/

No matter how lethal the variant, it has neither wings nor feet. If we adhere to PH measures with real discipline, we will be safe. Will need extra support, attention in schools especially (see testing) to ensure no trouble is invited 12/

So in a matter of WEEKS, we will likely have 4 vaccines, only 1 of which is a storage/transport hassle, and a SINGLE dose option to boot And we are already (finally) driving down transmission. We're giving ourselves a shot in the arm before anyone else 13/

This ugly marathon relay IS in its last leg. Some have held the baton on their own the entire time. Some have dropped it suffering cramping, exhaustion. Others have flat out been too frail, weak or disadvantaged to survive it. 14/

But the finish line is in sight now. There is hydration on the sidelines, cheers from proud supporters getting louder. It may not seem loud enough, soon enough. But it's there & getting stronger. 15/

For those of us who CAN, be patient. Be kind. Be grateful. Help, advocate for those not so privileged or fortunate. There are TOO many in this camp whose lives have always been difficult to no fault of their own 16/

Without paid sick leave, improved job safety policies, tangible support for PWD, fundamental redesign of LTC, we will have swept all of our systemic rot under the rug. The stench of inequity will resurface. That cannot be accepted 17/

Calamity, catastrophe, uncertainty is slowly but surely fading. Hope, faith in a more thoughtful vision for a healthier society is within reach - one that will have grown immeasurably from the depths of despair to new levels of health and sustainability 18/

Seek knowledge. Seek guidance. Seek faith. Be patient. Be forgiving. Think better of one another. Be kind to yourself too. We will do this together. This nightmare will end. We will be better for it. We have to be. 19/ End

One day. One day. #hope

@threadreaderapp please unroll