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If I had a little more enthusiasm for this I’d write it up as a piece, but I’m just going to tweet it out in a quick short burst.
I don’t expect Immanuel Quickley to start this season & I think there’s an argument for why that’s not bad.
Don’t kill me. It’s just *one* thought.
I don’t expect Immanuel Quickley to start this season & I think there’s an argument for why that’s not bad.
Don’t kill me. It’s just *one* thought.
So, all the numbers say that IQ makes his teammates better. That jives with the common wisdom that he provides things that open up spacing, allowing his “non-shooter” teammates to thrive in their respective roles. No argument.
Elfrid Payton does the reverse of that. On his best nights, he does a passable job. On his mediocre & worst nights he kills us. That part is also plain and clear.
Seems like a no-brainer to start IQ, the way all the smart heads around here are saying. Again, no argument. But....
IQ’s skill set does that for *all* of his teammates & therefore maybe the guys who need the most help...the 15-18 minute bench guys benefit from his skills.
IQ’s skill set does that for *all* of his teammates & therefore maybe the guys who need the most help...the 15-18 minute bench guys benefit from his skills.
If IQ is playing all 15-18 minutes with guys who have an even slimmer margin to success than the more talented starters, you maximize their contributions. Also, he gets to cook against non-star counterparts.
In those 15-18 minutes with the second unit, IQ gets to feel his way out against guys who are, in theory, weaker than him. He can make mistakes without the slim margin a guy like Curry will provide as an opponent, for instance.
If you get him 28-30 minutes per night, those 15-18 are only around 40-50% of his overall minutes anyway. You bring him in against the opponent’s starters when they’re getting gassed & he’s fresh. His change of pace will force the opposing coach’s hand to the bench as a counter.
IQ seems to have some very good chemistry with Obi Toppin, for instance. Toppin gets more space to cut and to shoot threes when IQ is with him. With Elfrid, teams can double or hedge into the space he needs to do literally anything.
Right now, the worst version of Toppin is the hunched backing down over-dribbler. The best version is the moving, cutting, floating in dangerous open areas Toppin. IQ does all of that for him. Plus, IQ’s floater is twice as dangerous with Toppin as a lob threat.
The issue is going to remain whether or not you can keep *playing* Elfrid Payton starter’s minutes, not who will replace him. It’s clear IQ is the *only* guy on the roster who can strictly take his minutes at the one. In a perfect world, Payton wouldn’t be playing much at all.
But....and I say this as a card-carrying Payton detractor, he does play well in stretches with RJ and Randle when those guys are playing their A-games. If they’re at peak, Payton isn’t killing them. It could be better...but it’s still fine. The problem is when they’re not peak.
I expect that Thibs will try to ride this season out with IQ as his third guard, picking and choosing the matchups he thinks IQ can exploit without being thrown into the fire. He’s never going to throw him into the breach to play Damian Lillard or Steph for huge minutes.
I don’t think that’s bad, and in fact it might be very smart. We can keep hating on Payton...cool....but I think it may be in IQ’s best interest to not start, but still play 30 minutes a night where the matchups are favorable to do so. It’s *one* possible development plan.
