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THREAD: Criteria for WR Height Range +6'2
6'0-6'2 yielded 80% success rate to a top 24 season (pinned tweet) and it only eliminates 1 player. +6'2 is more difficult but still a 67% hit rate - Here's the kicker.. +6'2 gives us the highest success rate for WR1 seasons!
6'0-6'2 yielded 80% success rate to a top 24 season (pinned tweet) and it only eliminates 1 player. +6'2 is more difficult but still a 67% hit rate - Here's the kicker.. +6'2 gives us the highest success rate for WR1 seasons!
Step 1: 1st/2nd round draft capital
Started with 99 drafted players in this HT range (not including the 2020 class) with 27 'hits'. By using only R1/2 DC, we eliminate 50 players and only 4 'hits'. If you want to target that 8% hit rate be my guest.
23 hits/49 overall=47%
Started with 99 drafted players in this HT range (not including the 2020 class) with 27 'hits'. By using only R1/2 DC, we eliminate 50 players and only 4 'hits'. If you want to target that 8% hit rate be my guest.
23 hits/49 overall=47%
Step 2: Coll. DOM Rating >29.5%
Same as 6'0-6'2. Eliminates 8 overall and 2 'hits'. DK Metcalf and Vincent Jackson (<2yr data on). Losing DK hurts. I do have a Freak Show Score I am working on for the 99th percentile guys. Stay tuned there.
21 hits/41 overall=51.2%
Same as 6'0-6'2. Eliminates 8 overall and 2 'hits'. DK Metcalf and Vincent Jackson (<2yr data on). Losing DK hurts. I do have a Freak Show Score I am working on for the 99th percentile guys. Stay tuned there.
21 hits/41 overall=51.2%
Step 3: BMI >26.35
Tighter parameter than 6'0-6'2 guys at 25.25. We eliminate 12 more overall and 4 'hits' but 1 gives us major heartburn:
DJ Chark - eh
Sydney Rice - 1 top 24 season, who cares
Michael Clayton - " " "
AJ Green - okay this one hurts
17 hits/29 overall=58.6%
Tighter parameter than 6'0-6'2 guys at 25.25. We eliminate 12 more overall and 4 'hits' but 1 gives us major heartburn:
DJ Chark - eh
Sydney Rice - 1 top 24 season, who cares
Michael Clayton - " " "
AJ Green - okay this one hurts
17 hits/29 overall=58.6%
Step 4: Yards DOM Rating >20%
Good players gain yards in college. Pretty simple. Eliminates just 3 guys here but 1 is a hit and it's Kelvin Benjamin. To be honest, if my criteria called for Benjamin to be good I'd say there is a problem anyways.
16 hits / 26 overall= 61.5%
Good players gain yards in college. Pretty simple. Eliminates just 3 guys here but 1 is a hit and it's Kelvin Benjamin. To be honest, if my criteria called for Benjamin to be good I'd say there is a problem anyways.
16 hits / 26 overall= 61.5%
Step 5: 40 time - 4.60 or less
If you haven't learned yet, speed is not all that important. Just don't be cripplingly slow and you are okay.
16 hits / 24 overall - 66.7%
Let's check out our 16 hits and our 8 guys that busted and what success rate we have for WR1 seasons.
If you haven't learned yet, speed is not all that important. Just don't be cripplingly slow and you are okay.
16 hits / 24 overall - 66.7%
Let's check out our 16 hits and our 8 guys that busted and what success rate we have for WR1 seasons.
The 8 busts:
Bryant Johnson
Reggie Williams
Mike Williams - USC '05
Jonathan Baldwin
N'Keal Harry
Michael Floyd
Kevin White
Tyrone Calico
Since '13, only Kevin White and Harry. I would like to think the NFL has improved their drafting of this height range.
Now for our HITS!
Bryant Johnson
Reggie Williams
Mike Williams - USC '05
Jonathan Baldwin
N'Keal Harry
Michael Floyd
Kevin White
Tyrone Calico
Since '13, only Kevin White and Harry. I would like to think the NFL has improved their drafting of this height range.
Now for our HITS!
OUR HITS! (excludes 2020 class - more on them later)
Allen Robinson
Michael Thomas
Courtland Sutton
Mi. Evans
Demaryius Thomas
Dwayne Bowe
Jordy Nelson
Roy Williams
Alshon Jeffery
L. Fitzgerald
Kenny Britt
Jordan Matthews
Devante Parker
Braylon Edwards
Calvin Johnson
Julio Jones
Allen Robinson
Michael Thomas
Courtland Sutton
Mi. Evans
Demaryius Thomas
Dwayne Bowe
Jordy Nelson
Roy Williams
Alshon Jeffery
L. Fitzgerald
Kenny Britt
Jordan Matthews
Devante Parker
Braylon Edwards
Calvin Johnson
Julio Jones
7 Hits we eliminated:
DK - FREAK SHOW Score brings him back
Syd. Rice- Don't care
M. Clayton- " " " "
V. Jackson- <2yr data - less likely to happen in 2020 as it did in 2005
DJ Chark- eh
AJ Green- This hurts - Major outlier
Kelvin Benjamin- LOL
DK - FREAK SHOW Score brings him back
Syd. Rice- Don't care
M. Clayton- " " " "
V. Jackson- <2yr data - less likely to happen in 2020 as it did in 2005
DJ Chark- eh
AJ Green- This hurts - Major outlier
Kelvin Benjamin- LOL
Criteria for WR's taller than 6'2:
1) 1st/2nd round draft capital
2) College DOM > 29.5%
3) BMI > 26.35
4) Yards DOM >20%
5) 40 time - 4.60 or less
Meet this criteria and you have a 67% hit rate. But here is where this height range gets SAUCYYYYYYY.. cont..
1) 1st/2nd round draft capital
2) College DOM > 29.5%
3) BMI > 26.35
4) Yards DOM >20%
5) 40 time - 4.60 or less
Meet this criteria and you have a 67% hit rate. But here is where this height range gets SAUCYYYYYYY.. cont..
This criteria gives us a 13/24 hit rate on WR1 seasons. AND 9/24 on top 5 seasons. If you meet this criteria, you have a 50/50 shot at a SUPERSTAR WR.
Hope this is of value and stay tuned for the Sub 6'0 range next.
Below I tagged the 6'0-6'2 range: https://twitter.com/DynastySFlex/status/1351912502666399746?s=20
Hope this is of value and stay tuned for the Sub 6'0 range next.
Below I tagged the 6'0-6'2 range: https://twitter.com/DynastySFlex/status/1351912502666399746?s=20
Also, look out for the 2020 class profiles for the +6'2 height range that includes:
Tee Higgins
Michael Pittman Jr.
Chase Claypool
Denzel Mims
If you want to see the 2020 class profiles for the 6'0-6'2 range, those are tagged below: https://twitter.com/DynastySFlex/status/1352351613181190148?s=20
Tee Higgins
Michael Pittman Jr.
Chase Claypool
Denzel Mims
If you want to see the 2020 class profiles for the 6'0-6'2 range, those are tagged below: https://twitter.com/DynastySFlex/status/1352351613181190148?s=20
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