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So, on California's vaccination pace: Biden's goal of 100 million shots in 100 days nationwide works out to about 12 million in CA. So, an average of about 120,000 shots per day through the end of April.
How close are we to that pace? In short, we don't know.
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How close are we to that pace? In short, we don't know.
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On Wednesday, both @CAPublicHealth & @CDCgov increased the state's shots administered counts by about 72,000.
Then on Thursday, a little over 100,000.
Then today, close to 170,000.
https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article248693100.html
But...
Then on Thursday, a little over 100,000.
Then today, close to 170,000.
https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article248693100.html
But...
...what we don't know yet is what % of this day-to-day growth is "real" (new shots in arms) and what % of it is cleaning up the mess of data reporting issues CA has recently suffered. Lots more on those here from @pohl_jason, @PhillipHReese: https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article248635230.html
What we *do* know is that state epidemiologist Dr. Erica Pan said CA is only being allocated about 400,000 to 500,000 doses a week as of now. At the high end, that's about 71,000 a day. From @JeongPark52 on that: https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article248652255.html
Dr. Pan said the current pace is unlikely to increase much until a 3rd vaccine candidate is approved to join Pfizer and Moderna's shots, which probably wouldn't happen until March at the earliest.
That'd likely be the Johnson & Johnson candidate, which has some clear logistical advantages. Mainly: 1 dose instead of 2, and doesn't need to be kept at ultracold temperatures. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-21/j-j-vaccine-trial-has-enough-data-to-analyze-soon-fauci-says
So then the question becomes, if all goes smoothly with J&J and it's approved in March/early April, where will we be in CA's mass vaccination campaign at that point? Well, unless something drastic happens, it's like Dr. Pan said: We'll be behind goals and have to play catch-up.
Whatever else happens between now and a third vaccine's approval, that approval almost certainly be a major turning point, which CA - ranking near the bottom of the U.S. right now in terms of % of shots given and shots per 100K residents - *can't* afford to fumble.
