I disagree with the premise of this @Noahpinion piece.

He asks: when will US gov borrowing lead to a problem/hyperinflation. And then says nobody knows.

But IMO the very question itself wrong, and the reason is found right here in the piece itself... https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/no-one-knows-how-much-the-government

Hyperinflation results from some kind of regime change, societal disruption, war, government legitimacy collapse etc.

That could happen in the US at some point! Government stability isn't looking great these days. But it's a very separate thing than debt or deficit levels.

Of course it's going to be tough to model when people lose faith in the US government. But it doesn't imply, from that, that debt/deficit levels are going to be a useful guide to when that is.

And in the meantime, worrying about "the debt' is likely to lead to bad policy.

If, as Noah says, economists have made no progress in understanding how and when debt levels become a problem, why should we accept their premise that debt levels must at some point become a problem? The whole thing is putting their finger on the scale right off the bat.

Gregor nails it https://twitter.com/GregorMacdonald/status/1352717494608302081

It's really problematic to accept the premise that at some point debt must cause a problem. Because you can already see the idea percolating into opinion columnists again, and then bad policy eventually comes downstream from that. https://twitter.com/DouthatNYT/status/1352711547374727168

The question is, how much bad econ policy must we accept from people who insist that deficits and debt must be dangerous, but have no track record of being right or even a rigorous way of demonstrating as such?

This is good from @clintballinger https://clintballinger.wordpress.com/2021/01/12/the-myth-of-hyperinflation/ https://clintballinger.wordpress.com/2021/01/12/the-myth-of-hyperinflation/