With the number of Obama officials joining the Biden admin (notably FP), I fully expect the next four months to be filled with op-ed’s of vindication, defending of failed policies from that administration, and putting forward their justification for reverting back to them.

People focus on Iran as the policy focus that will encapsulate this the most. I rather think it’s more prominently going to be seen on Israel-Palestine and Iraq.

My two cents:
- Is/Pal vindication will include rhetoric on ‘their’ two state solution but little actual inclusion of a Palestinian voice.
- Syria policy won’t change significantly, at least not until the US (w/EU) form a position on Turkey’s broader regional presence/aggression

- Yemen policy is clearly going to change, and that’s a good thing. But how far that affects relations with the Gulf post confidence agreement among states remains unclear.
- Libya policy requires significant thought & balanced approach (I view Blinken as a positive appointment)

- on Iraq, I expect a lot of “trump blaming” for the new/ongoing crises, with continued muddled approach that fails to call out the actors that need to be effectively challenged and a lack of vision as to how to provoke material, systematic change, accountability & transparency

One outlier for regional FP priorities will be Egypt. While new admin seeks to change the balance of the US/Egypt relationship, Egypt is a very patient ally. In addition, Egypt faces its own existential identity crisis of sorts with regards to its regional presence and role...

Which can allow it to play a clear spoiler role. On the other hand, as it looks to carve a more independent position, moving out of the shadows of the UAE (& KSA), it seeks to reassert itself, possibly becoming a resurgent strong partner once again for the US in the region.

Where the US remains seemingly lost, is Sudan. On the one hand there is a true moment of opportunity for a new policy that prioritises rights, values & a civilian, democratic transition. On the other hand, regional geopolitics threaten to divert attention re: security priorities.

Finally while Blinken has given a nod to the Horn as a priority region the US has had a weak presence for a no. of years incl. pre-trump. Navigating a region deeply changes in its absence is both an enormous challenge & easily influenced by the array of actors exercising control.