20/ As many of you know, the stock market is a discounting mechanism and asset returns often move inversely with market expectations. Another way of saying this – right now the scenario priced into Nexgen’s stock is one of skepticism and unachievable timelines.

21/ I would be incredibly nervous if all the responses to Michael’s question were “2024”. That would only leave room for management to disappoint, whereas right now any overachievement on permitting vs. market expectations should result in a re-rating higher.

22/ But what are the market implications of an earlier or later start date? How does Arrow’s impact on broader supply and demand change the value proposition not just for other players, but for $NXE? This is why $NXE can act as a counterbalance to a basket of U equities.

23/ Walking through our delivery scenarios – If NXE runs into major permitting issues and does not begin delivering until the 2030s, one thing is clear: uranium prices need to go a whole lot higher. It is highly unlikely enough projects will be financed and built to offset it.

24/ Barring a permitting issue which makes mining Arrow impossible (i.e., Canada stops uranium mining), how do you think equity of the largest, lowest cost undeveloped asset in the world will react if project delays force uranium prices into a right tail event ($80+)?

25/ Now let’s say that the Nexgen team surprises the market by achieving permitting and operation by the middle of the decade – Arrow now becomes the dominant asset in the space with better margins than Kazatomprom and enough volume to drive major contracting.

26/ By being long a basket of higher cost (though potentially quicker to permit) assets and having no exposure to $NXE, you are inherently long the first instance, and short the second. By having an overweight in $NXE within a broader basket, you benefit in both scenarios.

27/ If you own a basket of U stocks which would be significantly less valuable (or potentially even short opportunities) if Arrow’s permitting process goes better than expected, understand that risk. If you assume you will have sold by then, you are dependent on greater fools.

28/ Generally, tier one, cycle defining assets trade at premiums rather than discounts due to their strategic nature. Will $NXE be allowed to develop the deposit independently or is the asset worth more to another party? That’s likely a topic for another thread… Thank you.