Read on Twitter
New paper w Jessica Brown ( @JHB_econ)
Child Care over the Business Cycle
We ask: how does the child care market respond to business cycle fluctuations?
Results:
* The industry is very exposed to macroeconomic shifts
* Quality improves during recessions
https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/14048
Child Care over the Business Cycle
We ask: how does the child care market respond to business cycle fluctuations?
Results:
* The industry is very exposed to macroeconomic shifts
* Quality improves during recessions
https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/14048
On exposure:
* A 1 ppt ↑ in the unemployment rate: child care employment ↓ 3% & establishments ↓ 1%
* These declines are much larger than those in other low-wage industries
* The child care industry also recovers more *slowly* than the rest of the economy after a recession
* A 1 ppt ↑ in the unemployment rate: child care employment ↓ 3% & establishments ↓ 1%
* These declines are much larger than those in other low-wage industries
* The child care industry also recovers more *slowly* than the rest of the economy after a recession
What do these estimates imply for the COVID-19 recession?
The child care industry experienced unique stressors during the pandemic, w/ employment falling 16% (12/19 to 12/20).
Our estimates suggest that the recession alone can account for one-third to one-half of this decline.
The child care industry experienced unique stressors during the pandemic, w/ employment falling 16% (12/19 to 12/20).
Our estimates suggest that the recession alone can account for one-third to one-half of this decline.
Finally, on quality:
* Quality is countercyclical: programs still open in a recession are of higher-quality.
* Turnover falls.
* Average teacher education levels are higher.
* Teachers are more experienced.
* Parents rate programs more highly on Yelp.
* Quality is countercyclical: programs still open in a recession are of higher-quality.
* Turnover falls.
* Average teacher education levels are higher.
* Teachers are more experienced.
* Parents rate programs more highly on Yelp.
