1/ There have been several independent analyses of SGTF and non-SGTF cases identified through Pillar 2 testing linked to the PHE COVID-19 deaths line list:
a. LSHTM: reported that the relative hazard of death within 28 days of test for

2/ VOC-infected individuals compared to non-VOC was 1.35 (95%CI 1.08-1.68).
b. Imperial College London: mean ratio of CFR for VOC-infected individuals compared to non-VOC was 1.36 (95%CI 1.18-1.56) by a case-control weighting method, 1.29 (95%CI 1.07-1.54) by a standardised

3/ CFR method.
c. University of Exeter: mortality hazard ratio for VOC-infected individuals compared to non-VOC was 1.91 (1.35 - 2.71).
d. These analyses were all adjusted in various ways for age, location, time and other variables.
5. An updated PHE matched cohort analysis has

4/ reported a death risk ratio for VOC-infected individuals compared to non-VOC of 1.65 (95%CI 1.21-2.25).
6. There are several limitations to these datasets including representativeness of death
data (<10% of all deaths are included in some datasets), power, potential biases

5/ in case ascertainment and transmission setting.
7. Based on these analyses, there is a realistic possibility that infection with VOC B.1.1.7 is associated with an increased risk of death compared to infection with
non-VOC viruses.

6/ 8. It should be noted that the absolute risk of death per infection remains low.