Read on Twitter
“The new variant is 30-40% more deadly!!”
Makes for good headlines but v important to say that percentage changes are often misleading.
Better to look at the actual numbers themselves.
A 40% increase will mean death rate increases from 1 in 1000 to 1.4 in 1000.
Less scary.
Makes for good headlines but v important to say that percentage changes are often misleading.
Better to look at the actual numbers themselves.
A 40% increase will mean death rate increases from 1 in 1000 to 1.4 in 1000.
Less scary.
A good example is the three pupils that all increase their grades by 5 points.
Pupil A’s score goes from 20 to 25. A 25% increase.
Pupil B’s score goes from 50 to 55. A 10% increase.
Pupil C’s score goes from 95 to 100. A 5% increase.
Pupil A’s score goes from 20 to 25. A 25% increase.
Pupil B’s score goes from 50 to 55. A 10% increase.
Pupil C’s score goes from 95 to 100. A 5% increase.
The point is percentage changes themselves tell you almost nothing unless you know the actual numbers.
They’re especially misleading when numbers are low.
That’s why Whitty phrased it the way he did. Not to hide anything, but because he knows statistics are deceptive.
They’re especially misleading when numbers are low.
That’s why Whitty phrased it the way he did. Not to hide anything, but because he knows statistics are deceptive.
I am not saying we won’t see a noticeable and tragic uptick in the death rate. We will. Because large numbers of people are infected.
I’m just pointing out that screaming “30% increase” headlines can mislead you into thinking increases are bigger than they are.
I’m just pointing out that screaming “30% increase” headlines can mislead you into thinking increases are bigger than they are.
