(THREAD) KDB and Vardy replacements, who to go for?

It is likely that many managers transfer plans have now changed with both Vardy and KDB confirmed out for a couple of weeks

What are your best options to go for? Should you go safe or for a differential etc...?

KDB REPLACEMENTS:

Premium options:
Son (9.7)
Rashford (9.6)

For those looking at Rashford or Son as a replacement, the answer is quite straight forward in my opinion. Over the last 5 GWs there isn’t really a stat where Rashford beats Son. Son is the creator and has...

the higher goal scoring potential and he has proved that throughout this season. The only thing that really speaks for Rashford is this SHU fixture that he scored 2 goals against while Spurs play Liverpool. But as a long-term option the safer and probably smarter pick is Son

Leicester assets:
Maddison
Barnes

I wrote about these two earlier this week before the Vardy news and despite Maddison being the most popular KDB replacement right now if you look at transfer stats, I (as you may know by now) prefer Barnes. He gets into the box a...

lot more than Maddison and the efficiency numbers that Maddison right now is putting up are very unsustainable. I believe that they are both good options but the news of Vardy being out makes me lean even more towards Barnes. He has scored 3 goals in his last 3 games in all...

competitions when Vardy hasn’t started. It should be said though that the sample size of Leicester without Vardy is very small.

It does however seem like the system and formation doesn’t change much when Vardy is missing and it’s very likely that Iheanacho just comes in up top.

Man City assets:
Gundogan
Silva
Foden
Sterling

Over the last 4 games (per appearance):

Gundogan - Foden - Silva - Sterling:

xG: 0.54 - 0.34 - 0.23 - 0.24
nPxG: 0.35 - 0.34 - 0.23 - 0.08

xA: 0.25 - 0.3 - 0.29 - 0.10

I know some are not big fans of expected data but just by looking at the recent form it seems like paying 11.4 for Sterling is ridiculous, especially when there are so many other options. With him being on penalties now and being the cheapest out of the bunch, my favourite...

is Gundogan. It should be said that Silva is a bit of a wildcard since he will now very likely take over that KDB role and since we haven’t seen him play there often it could be a position change that helps Silva become more involved if you want to go for a punt. Foden is...

player that gets the most involved in the penalty area and the most creative out of the Man City mids but when it comes to these 3 upcoming fixtures, you want a player that starts and I don’t think KDB’s injury changes that Foden will likely be rotated one of those 3 games.

CONCLUSION:

Son is by far the safest pick as a replacement but if you are really trying to catch up there are a lot of different options. Maybe go for a player with much lower ownership and free up funds to upgrade elsewhere. It really depends on what suits you...

but as more of a differential, Barnes or Gundogan are my favourite options right now. Here is a comparison between the two since GW15:

Barnes =
Gundogan =

VARDY REPLACEMENTS:

Premium options:
Kane

There isn’t really another premium striker out there other than Kane right now so it’s a very easy swap for people to make if you don’t need money to upgrade elsewhere. He has okay fixtures but is a very strong captaincy shout...

in GW23 vs WBA. The only concern is that he as of late has struggled against the better defensive teams in the league as you can see below which could be worrying with him playing both Liverpool and Chelsea in his next 3 games. https://twitter.com/FPL_Swe/status/1351178434697957378

Mid-price options:
Antonio
Watkins
Bamford

Since the sample size that we have seen from Antonio is so small this season, it’s tough to make a comparison between these three assets. They all have quite similar difficulty in fixtures but from what we have seen so...

far, Antonio looks like the forward that I would put first in my FPL team. I can really only judge him on his performance in the double gameweek and obviously he wont play Burnley and West Brom every week but he still looked brilliant and took home the 3 bonus points in both...

games. Bamford and Watkins are maybe not as hot at the moment but after both their games against Newcastle, that could change very quickly. I would right now prefer Bamford however. The chances for Leeds seem to continue to fall to him and he is still on penalties. With...

Watkins it seems like a lot of chances go to Traoré/El Ghazi or Grealish instead and his recent attacking stats compared to Bamford are considerably worse. Will be interesting to see now that Barkley is back, if that will change anything for Watkins.

Thanks for taking the time out of your day to read this thread. Hopefully you enjoyed it and want me to continue writing similar content in the future!

Stats are provided by @FFH_HQ