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Hypothetical Match Day Extra Dividends (MDEDs) Data Analysis:
1) Probability of Winning MDEDs between 01/08/2019 and 17/01/2021.
2) How the introduction of MDEDs would have Changed the Probabilty of Winning a Match Day Dividend between 01/08/2019 and 17/01/2021 #footballindex
1) Probability of Winning MDEDs between 01/08/2019 and 17/01/2021.
2) How the introduction of MDEDs would have Changed the Probabilty of Winning a Match Day Dividend between 01/08/2019 and 17/01/2021 #footballindex
3) Probability of Winning MDEDs (Left) compared to Match Day Dividends (Right) between 01/08/2019 and 17/01/2021 #footballindex
To illustrate what the second table suggests: If MDEDs were in place between the start of the 2019 season, and last Sunday (17/01), a 240 score from a Forward on a random match day would be 37% more likely to win a (Match Day) Dividend.
Therefore, looking at the data, MDEDs would have rewarded scores between 200 and 250 the most, as many scores above 250 would win Match Day Dividends. It's unlikely that an outfield player will be rewarded for a score below 180, but possible on rare weeks with very few games.
What I take from the Goalkeeper category is that high scores that narrowly miss out on gold/silver matchdays will likely be rewarded with MDEDs, which is as valuable as a bronze matchday win. It is interesting that Goalkeepers are more likely to win MDDs than MDEDs for scores...
Below 160, with scores up to 165 having similar chances for either dividend. This is indicative of how easily a goalkeeper can win PB on bronze/low game silver match days. It's also worth pointing out that the goalkeeper category is a small sample with only 16 datapoints.
To calculate the above: The Probablility of Winning Match Day Dividends (not the new MDEDs) between 09/08/2019 and 17/01/2020. Taken and updated from a previous thread of Match Day Dividends data: https://twitter.com/BCFCUncleBobFI/status/1345070114404761600?s=19
