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So much going on this week that I completely missed EPA releasing this year's Automotive Trends Report with data through 2019.
https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends
If you care about US GHG emissions, this report does not contain great news. A couple unstructured thoughts... (1/n)
https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends
If you care about US GHG emissions, this report does not contain great news. A couple unstructured thoughts... (1/n)
First, remember that the original program announced by President Obama was projected to achieve very large oil and GHG reductions: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2012/08/28/obama-administration-finalizes-historic-545-mpg-fuel-efficiency-standard
12 billion barrels over the life of vehicles sold 2012-2025.
12 billion barrels over the life of vehicles sold 2012-2025.
But these projected savings were developed by producing estimates of what kinds of vehicles Americans would buy over that long period, and then comparing a world with and without fuel economy standards.
A major input to the projection of consumer purchasing was oil prices.
A major input to the projection of consumer purchasing was oil prices.
The original projection was made in the 2011 to 2012 timeframe, before oil prices crashed in 2014. At the time, we all wondered what kind of impact the price crash would have on consumer choice.
It turns out, I believe, that it was fairly massive.
It turns out, I believe, that it was fairly massive.
The new EPA report gives a picture of just how much the kinds of vehicles Americans are purchasing differ from what EPA projected back in 2012.
Here, for example, is the light truck share of the U.S. market, projected versus actual. Huge gap that is only getting wider.
Here, for example, is the light truck share of the U.S. market, projected versus actual. Huge gap that is only getting wider.
And here is vehicle footprint (that is, size, in regulatory jargon): Again, huge gap between expectations and reality.
And it's not only all those extra SUVs driving this. The car footprint is bigger than expected too.
And it's not only all those extra SUVs driving this. The car footprint is bigger than expected too.
I don't want to oversimplify this. Maybe that there are things besides gas prices driving the shift. Maybe Americans prefer bigger vehicles. Josh Linn at RFF has written about this.
And, importantly, the regulations *incentivize* bigger vehicles by giving them lower targets.
And, importantly, the regulations *incentivize* bigger vehicles by giving them lower targets.
But whatever you believe to be the reason, it is having a big impact. Here is the final compliance data through 2019 for the US auto industry in both GHG terms as reported and MPG-eq.
The bottom line is that the policy is not achieving the intended results measured in savings.
The bottom line is that the policy is not achieving the intended results measured in savings.
