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We don’t have final 2020 Census data yet — and we won’t have all of it for a long time — but the trend lines are pretty clear. Here’s what the numbers are likely to tell us, based on my conversations with a bunch of smart demographers:
https://thehill.com/homenews/news/535276-what-the-2020-census-will-reveal-about-americas-future
1/12
https://thehill.com/homenews/news/535276-what-the-2020-census-will-reveal-about-americas-future
1/12
The post-WWII decades of explosive growth are over. The US population is growing at the slowest rate since the first Census was conducted in 1790. Population grew 0.35% from 2019-2020, the slowest rate since the Bureau started keeping yearly track in 1900 2/12
The population growth that IS happening is almost entirely among seniors. The 55+ population grew 27% in the last decade. The population of those under 55 grew just 1.3%. 3/12
Based on current patterns, the US population is likely to rise to 404 million by 2060 — half the growth rate over the next 40 years than we had over the previous 40 years. If immigration continues at its recent slow pace, US population by 2060 would be only 376 million. 4/12
The white population is shrinking. The number of non-Hispanic whites in the US in 2019 was about 16,000 less than it was in 2010. Sounds like a rounding error? Compare it to the decade between 1970-1980, when non-Hisp whites grew by 11.2 million. 5/12
The growth the US did experience over the last decade came almost entirely from non-whites. About half of overall growth came from Hispanics, almost a quarter from Asian Americans and about 15% from Black Americans. 6/12
Post-Gen Z generation is America’s first majority-minority generation. A little over 49% are non-Hisp white, a little under 51% are of a different race.
(An aside: That generation doesn’t have a name yet. What should we call them? Born 2013 or later, nominations open) 7/12
(An aside: That generation doesn’t have a name yet. What should we call them? Born 2013 or later, nominations open) 7/12
The baby bust, exacerbated by the Great Recession, is getting worse. There are about 3 million more childless women in prime child-bearing years than we might have expected based on earlier trends. 8/12
There are early hints that the pandemic is making the baby bust worse. Totally understandable: Who wants to go to a hospital in the middle of a pandemic? 9/12
We’re not as mobile as we once were. Just 9.3% of Americans changed official residences in the last year, the lowest since the Bureau started keeping track in 1947 and about half the rate of a typical year in the 1980s or 1990s. 10/12
Serious undercounts are likely this year. Blame the pandemic, blame Trump admin for rushing the count or trying to add a citizenship question. The double whammy: The communities most likely to be undercounted are also most likely to be the worst impacted by #COVID19. 11/12
Lots of interesting numbers to pour over for the next several years. But we kinda already know where the story is heading. Read it here: https://thehill.com/homenews/news/535276-what-the-2020-census-will-reveal-about-americas-future 12/12
