1/ A small thread on carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), with a disclaimer that it has been at least five years since I studied it deeply. I suspect not much has changed. cc @elonmusk

2/ The idea behind CCS is simple. Capture CO2 where it is produced (i.e. coal plants), pressurize it, move it to where it can be injected into the ground and bury it, hopefully for a very long time.

3/ This isn’t really a technology problem, although ongoing development certainly helps. The real issues are economic and political. Let’s take them both in turn, followed by some predictions about how Elon’s game will play out.

4/ Economics. There’s no real use for CO2 beyond the modest industrial demand that exists today (food grade CO2 for beverages, as one example). The current demand for CO2 is readily met by existing byproduct processes (i.e. EO & ammonia production plants).

4/ Economics, con’t. Absent a new positive economic utility for CO2, the vast infrastructure investments required to capture it at a climate-relevant scale destroys enormous value. Those investments simply won’t happen unless mandated.

5/ Economics, con’t. Ironically, the largest untapped potential use for captured CO2 is enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Environmentalists would hate it, but EOR is the only plausible large-scale use case for captured CO2 that might partially justify the capital investments needed.

6/ Politics. Absent a rigorous and globally synchronized tax on carbon, CCS won’t happen. Such a tax requires ALL major G20 countries to agree on terms and implementation, otherwise the participating countries are volunteering to be economic martyrs.

7/ Politics con’t. As an aside, just the new pipeline infrastructure needed to transport CO2 from where it is captured to where it can be injected is likely a death knell for CCS. Google “NIMBY” and “Keystone Pipeline” if you have any doubts.

8/ Predictions. Elon will focus on some small and irrelevant part of the entire CCS technology framework (i.e. improved capture). He’ll babble on about an order-of-magnitude improvements on that small piece of the equation and call the problem solved.

9/ Predictions con’t. There will be no shortage of academic professor sycophants who will suck up to Elon for a piece of that $100mm. For those of you that have never worked in heavy industry, please know that “it works in universities” is not meant as a compliment. <fin>