Having read the report of @IndyWalesCom and attended the excellent @PlaidCeredigion discussion tonight, I have to say I'm not convinced we should put all our eggs in the confederal basket when building a case for #indywales #Annibyniaeth

Some sort of relationship of that type may eventually emerge and of course it is good to have a plan but I think confederacy could only be the determining factor in indy if things happen according to a specific timeline. But as the past few years show, anything can happen.

For the UK to be dissolved into a confederacy in ten years or so would require a quite specific set of circumstances: for Scotland to win #indyref2 and then agree during the process of negotiation over the exact split from England and Wales to participate in a joint confederation

It's not impossible and it is even utopian in many respects... But it isn't going to happen. Scotland would certainly want to be independent first and in the EU. But Scotland, or the SNP, isn't going to be the real problem. The problem will be the Westminster Government.

There is no way a Tory Government - even a post-Johnson Government - is going to accept this. It is unlikely that there will be a Labour Government any time soon either. And even if there was, they wouldn't accept it either. So it isn't going to happen.

The only way it might come about is if the UK state just collapses, which is obviously possible. But that would be messy and take years. Alternatively, further on in time, after say 10 years of successful independence, Scotland might agree to something then.

No doubt there are other ways this could play out but I think these are the most likely. Therefore I think while a confederacy might very well eventually arise, it shouldn't be central to the roadmap for #indywales unless we see that as process requiring 20-30 years.

I don't think we have that long. The UK is being turned into an offshore cheap labour economy in front of our eyes at the moment. According to the FT, over a million foreign-born people have left the UK in past year. The UK Govt are refusing to give the EU full diplomatic status.

These are not reasonable people. There is not going to be a reasonable discussion over Scotland's secession, during which Wales can press for a confederal solution. There will have to be independence first and then maybe that road can be taken.

So, in conclusion, while confederacy is an option to keep in our discussions, it shouldn't be the central plank of the policy of how #Annibyniaeth is achieved. At the very least, there need to be alternative roadmaps... Or?