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So let’s be clear. This is false. He knows it is false, he just doesn’t care. Let’s see what the science says.
Thread: https://twitter.com/dbonessi/status/1352339224977145859
Thread: https://twitter.com/dbonessi/status/1352339224977145859
Making any blanket statement about what the science shows is just flat out wrong. In this case, it is deadly. The truth is, schools are not safe when the community is not safe. Here is a paper analyzing school re-openings in England: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/911267/School_Outbreaks_Analysis.pdf
They conclude that “The strong correlation between COVID-19 outbreaks and regional SARS-CoV-2 incidence highlights the importance of controlling the disease in the community to protect the staff and students in educational settings.”
This means that if there is uncontrolled community spread around a school, it will also experience spread of the virus.
Now here is a news piece published in Nature that reiterates this point. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02403-4#ref-CR4
Now here is a news piece published in Nature that reiterates this point. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02403-4#ref-CR4
“Schools can be high-risk places... Children are often crammed into poorly ventilated rooms for eight hours or more, he says. And there’s a lot of mixing, because children come from across the neighbourhood, some on public transport, and often with their parents in tow.”
Further, “If schools are reopened in areas with high levels of community transmission, major outbreaks are inevitable and deaths will occur in the community as a result.”
Seems clear to me that you can't open schools just b/c you feel like it. Or do we not like this science?
Seems clear to me that you can't open schools just b/c you feel like it. Or do we not like this science?
Another study, published just last month looked at school transmission rates in areas with high community spread: https://caldercenter.org/sites/default/files/WP%20247-1220_updated_typo.pdf
“we do find some evidence that in-person modality is associated with increased COVID spread in communities with relatively high pre-existing levels of COVID."
"In Michigan, for instance, districts offering an in-person instructional modality show increased COVID spread for daily average case counts over 21 cases per 100,000”
"In Washington, which has significantly lower average case counts than Michigan during our study period, we find evidence that the offer of in-person/hybrid modality is associated with addtnl community spread when avg pre-existing daily case counts are over 5 cases per 100,000”
What is the current rate for the state of Maryland? As of yesterday, 39.5 cases per 100,000. Baltimore City isn't much better, at 33.1 cases per 100,000. Neither of these is low enough to warrant reopening schools!
Oh, and before anybody tries to go on about “kids don’t spread COVID,” you’re wrong.
“In particular, there is little evidence from the present study to support suggestions that children may not be as infectious as adults.” https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.08.20125484v1
“In particular, there is little evidence from the present study to support suggestions that children may not be as infectious as adults.” https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.08.20125484v1
@BaltCitySchools feel free to refute the evidence here, since ya'll been all over Twitter today. Before you do, I know where to find your safety plan and I know you still haven't finished installing your air filters or fixing heating/AC systems. I stand with @BTUBaltimore!
