Something to keep in mind as Senate power-sharing standoff continues: Time matters a great deal in the credibility of McConnell and Schumer's threats.

McConnell has a temporary advantage that will erode the longer it continues. |1

Democrats' have ambitious COVID plans. Departments and agencies need Senate confirmed nominees. Republicans blockade of the organizing resolution delays this goals because Democrats lack gavels, committee votes, and more, to actually run the chamber. |2

Filibuster protectors, like Manchin, have policy and political incentives to maintain the filibuster. Filibusters offer political cover, enables blame shifting and position taking.

From a political standpoint, filibusters protect moderates from scrutiny. |3

However, blocking a majority from organizing the chamber disrupts the trappings of partisan power. Right now, McConnell is blocking Manchin from chairing Natural Resources, an hugely important committee to his state.

Many other moderates are in line for subcommittee gavels. |4

As much as Manchin likes the filibuster's protection, that cannot rival the authority of a chair of a critical committee.

The benefits of partisan affiliation offer Manchin power filibusters don't provide. |5

McConnell's gambit is risky because the longer he blocks a majority from organizing the Senate, the longer he denies moderates' their claim to procedural benefits of their partisan affiliation. |6

The longer that continues, the more likely moderates will support aggressive tactics to secure the procedural authorities that should, and can, be theirs. |7

There could be a 4 dimensional chess element at work. McConnell could be using this to win concession on an now-unknown provision.

But the more time passes the weaker his leverage gets. |8

The blockade helps Schumer build the procedural majority he needs to take extraordinary step like nuking the filibuster on the organizing resolution.

This would like be framed as a "small" step, but would signal the beginning of the end of the legislative filibuster. |9

In sum, McConnell is in a not-great negotiating position, antagonizing moderates by blocking procedural deserts of majority status, as he holds out for a concession that may not be honored anyway (2011 deal was scuttled).

The longer this lasts, the weaker his threat gets. |10