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[Thread] Announced by President Macron in his New Year’s greetings to the armed forces, the updated 
Strategic Review has just been released. My take on this 55-page-long document (only in French for the moment)
http://swll.to/ActualisationStrategique2021
http://swll.to/PointsClesActuStrat2021
![[Thread] Announced by President Macron in his New Year’s greetings to the armed forces, the updated Strategic Review has just been released. My take on this 55-page-long document (only in French for the moment) http://swll.to/ActualisationStrategique2021 http://swll.to/PointsClesActuStrat2021](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EsR03VLXMAM0f1c.png "[Thread] Announced by President Macron in his New Year’s greetings to the armed forces, the updated Strategic Review has just been released. My take on this 55-page-long document (only in French for the moment) http://swll.to/ActualisationStrategique2021 http://swll.to/PointsClesActuStrat2021")
Strategic Review has just been released. My take on this 55-page-long document (only in French for the moment)http://swll.to/ActualisationStrategique2021
http://swll.to/PointsClesActuStrat2021
1/ The context: Four years after the previous Strategic Review was commissioned by the French President in 2017, the Defense Minister requested an update of this document in order to take into account the evolution of the strategic context.
Defense Minister requested an update of this document in order to take into account the evolution of the strategic context.
One objective of this document is to feed and inform the domestic debate as an update of the 2019-2025 Military Programming Law is scheduled this year and will notably decide on the level of funding for 2024 and 2025.
domestic debate as an update of the 2019-2025 Military Programming Law is scheduled this year and will notably decide on the level of funding for 2024 and 2025.
2/ The process: Even though the document was drafted in only a few months, many actors have been consulted: other relevant government departments (notably the MFA), the Parliament, experts, partners and allies.
3/ The threat analysis: The diagnosis is rather gloomy. According to the document, the deterioration of the strategic environment has “accelerated” since the last Review in 2017. Three threats are notably highlighted.
First, the terrorist threat. Embodied by ISIS or Al-Qaeda, the jihadist movement still poses a "global security challenge". International mobilization must continue, as "one cannot exclude the hypothesis of a reconstitution of territorialized proto-States”.
Second, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery. The document warns about the aggravation of the 
and 
nuclear proliferation crises, as well as the increasingly ambiguous nuclear posture of some states which fuels the risk of escalation.
and nuclear proliferation crises, as well as the increasingly ambiguous nuclear posture of some states which fuels the risk of escalation.
Third, the return of great power competition fueled by 
,
, but also and 
. Even though plays a key role for the security of NATO, Ankara has undertaken “an offensive foreign policy” aiming at establishing as an international power, including through the use of force.
,, but also and . Even though plays a key role for the security of NATO, Ankara has undertaken “an offensive foreign policy” aiming at establishing as an international power, including through the use of force.
This competition is expanding to new fields of confrontation (cyber, space, deep sea), while competitors are increasingly pursuing "hybrid strategies", combining military and non-military tools, under the threshold of armed conflict.
This situation is aggravated by the breakdown of the international order and the weakening of its institutions, as recently confirmed by the end of the INF Treaty, which "amplifies the risk of a new arms race in Europe".
The pandemic has worsened these trends. "The multidimensional crisis caused by the pandemic acts as a catalyst for the major threats and trends previously identified, while degrading the ability of States to respond”.
4/ The answer: In response to this deteriorating security environment, the French strategy is threefold: a more comprehensive defense doctrine, a more robust military, a persistent European mobilization.
First, a more comprehensive defense doctrine, encompassing the complexity of our strategic environment. Since 2017, has adopted strategies on:
Cyberdefense: http://www.sgdsn.gouv.fr/uploads/2018/03/revue-cyber-resume-in-english.pdf
Space: https://www.defense.gouv.fr/english/layout/set/print/content/download/574375/9839912/version/5/file/Space+Defence+Strategy+2019_France.pdf
Artificial intelligence: https://www.vie-publique.fr/sites/default/files/rapport/pdf/194000723.pdf
has adopted strategies on: Cyberdefense: http://www.sgdsn.gouv.fr/uploads/2018/03/revue-cyber-resume-in-english.pdfSpace: https://www.defense.gouv.fr/english/layout/set/print/content/download/574375/9839912/version/5/file/Space+Defence+Strategy+2019_France.pdfArtificial intelligence: https://www.vie-publique.fr/sites/default/files/rapport/pdf/194000723.pdf
Second, a more robust military through the 2019-2025 Military Programming Law which increases substantially French defense budget (aiming to reach the 2% target by 2025), enabling the modernization of capabilities.
capabilities.
Third, a persistent European mobilization. The document is crystal clear: “The risk of a definitive downgrading, or even erasure, of 
in world affairs can no longer be ruled out … is at a crossroads and must imperatively organize itself to face its security environment".
in world affairs can no longer be ruled out … is at a crossroads and must imperatively organize itself to face its security environment".
France calls for the construction of a genuine “European capacity for action enabling Europeans to be credible allies within NATO”. Europeans should keep increasing their defense budgets, build a strong European defense industrial basis and enhance their operational readiness.
Europeans should also foster their technological and industrial independence (especially in 5G, AI, data, quantum computing), "while preserving their interoperability with Allies". In these areas, Europeans have generally a piecemeal approach with undersized R&D budgets.
The objective of a more sovereign Europe does not go against the Transatlantic Alliance. "NATO remains the foundation of the collective defense of the European continent, of the transatlantic link, and of the nuclear culture of Europeans”.
The document also reaffirms the importance of the Alliance with 
. "The United States is both a global and indispensable ally … intends to preserve the excellence of its bilateral defense relationship with , a historical ally, based on shared values and interests". [End]
. "The United States is both a global and indispensable ally … intends to preserve the excellence of its bilateral defense relationship with , a historical ally, based on shared values and interests". [End]
