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A Heat Pump Policy Thread:
What if we paid resi HVAC manufacturers ~$400 per AC they manufacture if they make all of their production heat pumps?
Currently US OEMs make ~5M ACs and ~3M heat pumps. What if they were all heat pumps?
This might only cost ~$10 billion over 4 yrs
What if we paid resi HVAC manufacturers ~$400 per AC they manufacture if they make all of their production heat pumps?
Currently US OEMs make ~5M ACs and ~3M heat pumps. What if they were all heat pumps?
This might only cost ~$10 billion over 4 yrs
We think of residential electrification in "Two Clocks".
The first is getting to where 100% of installs involve a heat pump. Doing that by 2030 is REALLY HARD.
The second is running through all inventory, which will take ~20 years.
The first is getting to where 100% of installs involve a heat pump. Doing that by 2030 is REALLY HARD.
The second is running through all inventory, which will take ~20 years.
Every 6 seconds a new piece of residential HVAC starts up in the US.
That opportunity is lost until 2035-2040.
The faster we can move to 100% heat pump installs, the better.
That opportunity is lost until 2035-2040.
The faster we can move to 100% heat pump installs, the better.
BUT we have to avoid the "screw you I won't do what you tell me" instinct that is STRONG in us humans.
We could largely avoid if there were nothing but heat pumps available at supply houses and manufacturers were made whole for making them.
We could largely avoid if there were nothing but heat pumps available at supply houses and manufacturers were made whole for making them.
So back to paying HVAC manufacturers to make only heat pumps.
An AC is basically a one way heat pump. It can cool but not heat.
A heat pump in US parlance is two-way, it can cool AND heat.
Most ACs have a heat pump version. We already have the production in place.
An AC is basically a one way heat pump. It can cool but not heat.
A heat pump in US parlance is two-way, it can cool AND heat.
Most ACs have a heat pump version. We already have the production in place.
The difference is basically a few valves or ~$100-300 in parts.
So start by paying manufacturers $400 each for every heat pump they make (yes, that includes current ones), but only once 100% of production is heat pumps.
The second year, drop it to $300. Then $200, $100, and 0.
The second year, drop it to $300. Then $200, $100, and 0.
At that point the cost savings to manufacturers and the supply chain of having to make and stock fewer parts will likely make it a wash cost wise.
And we will have stopped that first clock in a few years, not 10.
And we will have stopped that first clock in a few years, not 10.
$400 x 8 million units is $3.2 billion for the first year. The other 3 years add up to $4.8B. So ~$8B total.
Chump change at the federal level, especially when it can move such a large part of energy use as residential fossil gas.
Chump change at the federal level, especially when it can move such a large part of energy use as residential fossil gas.
There are two big caveats here though.
First, many systems will remain hybrids (furnace + heat pumps).
That's ok. The next time those homeowners are much more likely to be open to a heat pump only system.
Hybrids use 50-90% less gas in our experience, so it's still a big win.
First, many systems will remain hybrids (furnace + heat pumps).
That's ok. The next time those homeowners are much more likely to be open to a heat pump only system.
Hybrids use 50-90% less gas in our experience, so it's still a big win.
Second caveat: many won't be hooked up as heat pumps, only as ACs.
Don't let this bother you! The capability will be there, all that is required is a different thermostat and maybe a new thermostat wire.
Figure that out later.
Don't let this bother you! The capability will be there, all that is required is a different thermostat and maybe a new thermostat wire.
Figure that out later.
All of this happens upstream of the kitchen table transaction.
Anything that makes it harder for contractors or homeowners will slow down adoption.
Be VICIOUS avoiding anything that hurts that transaction.
Anything that makes it harder for contractors or homeowners will slow down adoption.
Be VICIOUS avoiding anything that hurts that transaction.
So there you go:
A way to get to 100% residential heat pump penetration in just a few years, instead of 10, for about $10 billion over 4 years.
A way to get to 100% residential heat pump penetration in just a few years, instead of 10, for about $10 billion over 4 years.
But wait there's more!
This won't necessarily lead to variable speed inverter heat pumps that deliver excellent experiences.
That's where state and local help might come in.
Or, cough, cough, the HVAC 2.0 program that helps consumers see the value in higher end HVAC.
<fin>
This won't necessarily lead to variable speed inverter heat pumps that deliver excellent experiences.
That's where state and local help might come in.
Or, cough, cough, the HVAC 2.0 program that helps consumers see the value in higher end HVAC.
<fin>
PS I chafe at making big companies the primary benefactor here.
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