Read on Twitter
Looking at owed rent arrears data over the last ten months two things have become crystal clear.
1) At least in NYC the fears of mass “eviction tsunami” are not fact based.
2) Remarkably 5% percent of renters are accounting for nearly 80%! Of owed arrears.
Here's why.
1) At least in NYC the fears of mass “eviction tsunami” are not fact based.
2) Remarkably 5% percent of renters are accounting for nearly 80%! Of owed arrears.
Here's why.
While it is extremely clear initial high unemployment filings impacted rent payments and certainly other indicators (food pantries, etc) show us that NYrs are hurting economically the arrears data informs us that the pain is narrow and deeply acute.
Our data on payments nationally and locally has shown that monthly 15-20 % of renters can't make their rent payments. But it isnt always the same 15/20% of renters not paying. Some pay some months, while others can't. The number who have consistently not paid is closer to 5%.
So why does that mean an eviction tsunami isnt fact based? First, NYC rising vacancy rate is forcing owners to accept more partial payments/payment plans etc out of that 20% of monthly none payers. Some payment is ALWAYS better then non payment.
So while we see an aggregate of 15/20 % monthly none paying that universe isnt consistent throughout the pandemic. Therefore the owed arrears while damaging to the owners bottom line isnt a, "eviction level" or b, insurmountable via payment plan.
None of this is to say that economically people do not need help from the government to pay their housing costs. They do. But its important for lawmakers, the press, and the general public to understand exactly who is, or is not paying their rent when considering how to help.
You might say, well if only 5% of renters arent paying their rent why then would property owners need help. Thats where point 2 comes in. Of our estimated 1.1 Billion dollars in owed arrears ( just to the 900k of RS units) nearly 850 MILLION of that is owed by 5% of renters.
So owners are still carrying those losses regardless of how many of their renters owe. We are working on a survey of free market arrears/state wide. But these numbers have been remarkable consistent in data across the country and across the pandemic.
Whats up with that 5%? Are they folks who couldnt afford their homes in the first place?Are they people taking advantage of the eviction moratorium? Are they tenant advocates using this moment as a political tool?
We just don't know.
We just don't know.
Regardless the reason this proportionally small portion of the renter universe portends much bigger problems for the housing market.
Everyone agrees homelessness is abhorrent. No one seems to agree on whose job it to pay for housing those who are unable or unwilling to pay.
Everyone agrees homelessness is abhorrent. No one seems to agree on whose job it to pay for housing those who are unable or unwilling to pay.
Right now, property owners, many of them in a Rent Stabilized system that is forcing themselves and other renters to subsidize the extremely high cost of providing housing in cities like NY. COVID has highlighted the narrow margins these buildings operate on.
Its unsustainable.
Its unsustainable.
