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What is the typical win-loss record for a team making the 6th draft pick? What about the 26th or the 46th? Draft position helps to shape a rookie's team environment -- I wonder, how much does it impact his development?
In this chart, the blue areas show the range of "normal" win-loss records at each draft position, from the the 10th to the 90th percentile. So, for example, you can see that it was unusual for Jayson Tatum, as a Top-4 pick, to land on a playoff team like the Celtics.
Because teams are more likely to give up a second-round pick in a trade than a lottery pick, the blue shaded area gets bigger later in the draft. This leads to situations like Montrezl Harrell being snagged by the Houston Rockets with the 32nd pick in the 2015 draft.
In contrast, when rookies land in an unstable team environment they can sometimes have difficulty finding their footing in the league.
