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During his nomination hearing this week, Secretary of State nominee @ABlinken stated "we intend to review the entire approach to #NorthKorea policy." However, there are several data points that strongly suggest what the result will be. 1/
As DepSecState for Obama, Blinken supported "a comprehensive, sustained and relentless international pressure campaign" - a precursor to Trump's maximum pressure campaign - that forces KJU to choose between nukes and survival. See March 2017 NYT op-ed. 2/ https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/15/opinion/will-rex-tillerson-pass-north-koreas-nuclear-test.html
This pressure campaign -- including a global effort to isolate NK, military buildups to make China and NK sweat, and economic sanctions -- sought to coerce NK back to negotiating table, but on US's preferred terms. 3/ https://2009-2017.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2015/07/245325.htm
In both his 2017 and 2018 NYT op-eds, Blinken also pushed for an approach like the Iran deal, where an interim agreement freezes NK's nuclear and missile activities for limited economic relief, buying time to negotiate a more comprehensive deal. 4/ https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/11/opinion/trump-north-korea-iran-nuclear-deal.html
During his last debate with Trump, Biden's first point was to underscore that US would pressure China to pressure North Korea: "We're going to continue to [strengthen missile defenses, military forces, and exercises]" in region unless China does more. 5/
![During his last debate with Trump, Biden's first point was to underscore that US would pressure China to pressure North Korea: "We're going to continue to [strengthen missile defenses, military forces, and exercises]" in region unless China does more. 5/](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ek-u6cwVkAEC6tO.png "During his last debate with Trump, Biden's first point was to underscore that US would pressure China to pressure North Korea: \"We're going to continue to [strengthen missile defenses, military forces, and exercises]\" in region unless China does more. 5/")
![During his last debate with Trump, Biden's first point was to underscore that US would pressure China to pressure North Korea: "We're going to continue to [strengthen missile defenses, military forces, and exercises]" in region unless China does more. 5/](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ek-u7PuU8AANyJo.png "During his last debate with Trump, Biden's first point was to underscore that US would pressure China to pressure North Korea: \"We're going to continue to [strengthen missile defenses, military forces, and exercises]\" in region unless China does more. 5/")
![During his last debate with Trump, Biden's first point was to underscore that US would pressure China to pressure North Korea: "We're going to continue to [strengthen missile defenses, military forces, and exercises]" in region unless China does more. 5/](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ek-u8AWUwAABFZ2.png "During his last debate with Trump, Biden's first point was to underscore that US would pressure China to pressure North Korea: \"We're going to continue to [strengthen missile defenses, military forces, and exercises]\" in region unless China does more. 5/")
At his hearing, Blinken noted, as part of the review, the US would "look at what options can be effective in terms of increasing pressure on North Korea to come to the negotiating table, as well as what other diplomatic initiatives may be possible." 6/ https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20210120001151325
In Dec 2020, Biden NSC senior Asia coordinator Kurt Campbell recommended that the US devise its NK strategy early, embrace bold ideas, and reach out to NK quickly. 7/ https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/dec/03/biden-must-decide-on-north-korea-strategy-early-says-top-obama-era-diplomat
To sum up:
- Maintain pressure
- Reach out to NK for working-level talks, likely with conditions like no tests during talks
- If NK agrees, push for interim deal with partial economic relief
- If NK seeks concessions before talks or conducts tests, increase pressure 8/
- Maintain pressure
- Reach out to NK for working-level talks, likely with conditions like no tests during talks
- If NK agrees, push for interim deal with partial economic relief
- If NK seeks concessions before talks or conducts tests, increase pressure 8/
Other variables:
- S.Korea prefers more conciliatory approach, including reaffirming Singapore Statement emphasis on peace regime and new US-NK relations, and upfront trust-building measures
- Will Biden follow Campbell's rec for bolder approach? E.g., https://warontherocks.com/2020/12/a-bold-peace-offensive-to-engage-north-korea/ 9/
- S.Korea prefers more conciliatory approach, including reaffirming Singapore Statement emphasis on peace regime and new US-NK relations, and upfront trust-building measures
- Will Biden follow Campbell's rec for bolder approach? E.g., https://warontherocks.com/2020/12/a-bold-peace-offensive-to-engage-north-korea/ 9/
- NK is battling a crisis stemming from COVID/sanctions and may stay in shell longer
- If NK's main takeaway from US statements is PRESSURE, it may seek to regain leverage through provocations.
The US must clearly signal new US-NK relations and peace END/
- If NK's main takeaway from US statements is PRESSURE, it may seek to regain leverage through provocations.
The US must clearly signal new US-NK relations and peace END/
