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Re-upping this point as continuing claims are "down" 2.4 million in the week ending 1/2. This drop is artificial and is almost entirely driven by PUA and PEUC claimants lapsing as a result of waiting until the last minute to pass and sign an extension. https://twitter.com/ENPancotti/status/1349415311997624321
I know everyone is going to jump on the new continuing claims number (16 mil), but please please point out that this is a data/administrative issue, not that 2.5 million people magically came off UI due to exhausting or going back to work.
PUA initial claims are up nearly 30k from before the holidays/lapse (397k WE 12/19 vs 424k WE 1/16) after being suppressed for 3 consecutive weeks. The 138k week-over-week increase is real, but reflects access issues and backlogs.
Initial claims (NSA) are back down under 1mil (after crossing that threshold for the first time since July last week). At 961k, they're scarily and unsustainably high and show how weak labor markets are at this point in the "recovery."
