Pfizer. Israel refers to 30% efficacy “after” the first dose but does not state at what stage they are measuring efficacy as they ARE administering the second dose three weeks after

What steps are WE taking to measure efficacy in the vaccinated given we have vaccinated so many? https://twitter.com/stone_skynews/status/1351631293122015233

I understand that the gamble that antibodies may continue to build for a period longer than 21 days MIGHT pay off
But we don’t know.

What is being done to measure success

Can we have the data on the 2 different vaccines and outcomes please and at time intervals & age groups ?

After all with 4,609,740 people having received a first dose and 10% of them having received a second (with all of the early doses being Pfizer) don’t we have SOME performance data?

Likely some people will be infected WHEN they got vaccinated or soon after before immunity builds so starting the effectiveness measure from two weeks after the vaccination makes sense.

We don’t know if Israel’s 30% measure included the first two weeks or not.

But, given the dedication to a 12 week interval in the U.K, should we not be methodically measuring and publishing outcomes after 4 weeks/ 5/6/8/10 and 12 weeks BOTH vaccines and be adjusting the interval accordingly?

And where there ARE positives say where they are in the timeline, degree of severity, and the variant.

If the delay DOES demonstrate that immunity continues to build after one dose for many weeks after the first dose reliably in one or both vaccines then confidence in the plan will grow.

If true is that the case against all variants or only some?

The Pfizer vaccine was approved early Dec. AZ vaccine on 30th Dec.

So nearly 1 million people had 1 dose of the AZ vaccine by 27/12/20. No more than 460k have had second doses (likely nobody from the AZ arm).

So we should have some decent data on 1 dose Pfizer by now

Where is it?

By 10/1/20 there were over 400k people with a second dose.

Are they pulling away from single dose people yet?

And how are both comparing with age-matched no dose week by week starting from two weeks after first dose?

I assume we know?

These data are collected?

It would be extremely valuable to know how those who only received one dose in December are performing now.

We will have to wait until Feb/ March before we can start getting comparative data on AZ vaccines .

But we should see it.

Is the gamble paying off (hooray if it is)?

Clearly the more people who have protective immunity the better for all of us.

BUT if the gamble isn’t paying off (how is “paying off” measured?) we really do need to reverse ferret sooner rather than later.

It would be very reassuring to know what data are being monitored and by whom.

How post vaccination disease/ death is measured and by whom ( remembering there is bound to be some esp soon after first dose)? What measures?

I used the word “gamble” but in the sense of it being untested esp in the Pfizer vaccine.

However there is some solids immunity and vaccinology evidence to suggest that in many instances immunity does continue to build post vaccination for longer than 3 weeks.

There is also good evidence that booster shots improve the durability of vaccines and, in Pfizer’s case (small study of 102 patients in Israel) a very marked boost (x 6-20 times) a week after the second dose administered three weeks after the first

Just to flag up that I wouldn’t expect much review data on efficacy before now given the first doses of Pfizer were only delivered in the week before Xmas - so I don’t consider it suspicious we have had little so far.

But we should be getting some from next week on.

That would be 5 weeks from the first dose.

Did ALL who got their first dose in the week before Xmas get a second dose around 9th Jan? Only some? Demographic?

Those sort of data on a rolling programme of information, week by week.

It would build confidence & trust.

I’ve just seen this from a doctor.

How are these data being collected, monitored and published? https://twitter.com/geetaku77443673/status/1351940080907202561

This may have become detached from my thread. https://twitter.com/fascinatorfun/status/1352220102373027846

I want to talk about monitoring, data reporting and the importance of scalable software with rich datasets and reporting.

The NHS has a system of reporting INCIDENTS and SERIOUS INCIDENTS which feed into a log that should be monitored daily.

I would hope this is in place for the vaccination programme for ALL to use.

So not only would you know how many vaccinated with one or two doses and the interval, the demographics, the dates and the type.

But also any subsequent infection should be entered into the system.

The DATE of the symptoms and the positive test is clearly material as some vaccinated people may have been infected prior to or just after the first jab when immunity low.

Still an incident to be recorded and reviewed.

Infections later in the period (eg the example above 5 weeks after the first dose) should be more closely monitored and some proper epidemiology understatement to identify the background info.

Admissions and deaths should also be entered into the incident reporting system.

Again. Some are pretty inevitable. So we know from reports from doctors on here that patients receiving their first dose last week died this week. Likely infected when vaccinated .

Still should be recorded and tracked.

SERIOUS INCIDENTS : hospitalisations and deaths when the vaccination is supposed to have taken effect.

This is not a blame game but an information tracking system that can lead to an effective root cause analysis and adjustment of protocols,

There will be many other examples. Eg accidental “overdosing” as has happened.

Is this a training issue? Do SOPS need adjustment so there is always two people on the job. One to load the dose. One to deliver the dose.

Allergic reactions

There may be clusters associated with vaccination centres.

But IS there a central software system where these incidents are methodically recorded locally, regionally and nationally?

Where is responsibility located for inputting the key data and flagging them as incidents or serious incidents?

Indeed hospitals dealing with admissions and deaths may not have access to the system at all.

So who is responsibility for failsafe, bridging the gap.

@Channel4News reports tonight from a Care Home provider who says, despite nearly 100% of residents being vaccinated with one dose, 2-3 weeks later they are testing positive.

Here is another medic. 31 days after 1st Pfizer dose.

Now positive with moderate symptoms. Can’t work. https://twitter.com/drdaunt/status/1351160848912429073