How quickly might life get back to normal? Would faster vaccine rollout speed it up?

Our new @InstituteGC paper looks at what the government's plan might mean for easing restrictions, and health and economic benefits if we can accelerate the programme https://institute.global/policy/sunlit-uplands-vaccine-rollout-and-return-normality?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=launch

Gov plans imply 300k doses per day initially, with all adults offered a jab by September. That suggests a rollout that looks something like the blue line

That could mean ending lockdown in early March, moving to Tier 1 at start of June. But it would take until the end of September for normalisation

The accelerated rollout scenario we think will become possible could bring forward the later dates though possibly allowing normalisation in mid-May

Health impacts of the two scenarios are designed to be similar, but the economic benefits of accelerated rollout are big, with faster normalisation saving about £50bn

Inevitably this is based on many assumptions - about vaccine effectiveness on transmission and fatalities, the impact of restrictions, the changing IFR etc. You can download the model and see what impact changing them has.
https://institute.global/sites/default/files/2021-01/20210119%20Sunlit%20uplands%20model.xlsx