One thing that’s becoming clear about the proud boy/oath keeper/boogaloo crowd is just how unwilling they are to face real sacrifice or consequences for their beliefs. The Capitol attack happened in part because the attackers didn’t actually expect anything bad to happen to them.

The countless social media posts, both during and after the attack, expressing confidence that they would be fine and total comfort associating themselves with the attack, followed by complete shock and dismay when they started getting arrested, seems to demonstrate this.

Today was supposed to be the next big event in their insurrection, and there was pretty much nothing. It seems likely this was in part the result of the arrests/charging of the Capitol attackers, and the very clear message that violence in DC would be met with military force.

This probably also has a lot to do with, as many have observed recently, many of these people are materially very comfortable, and actually have a lot to lose if they engage in a violent insurrection. They have $5k rifles and $50k trucks and boats and families, why risk all that?

This doesn’t mean I think the threat of right-wing extremism should be dismissed, but I think it is probably more likely to come from lone wolf/Timothy McVeigh types than from organized groups. The extremist beliefs are sincere, but the rest is cosplay.

And maybe I’m wrong about all this! It’s totally speculation and conjecture about things that I don’t really know about (except that I am pretty familiar with these types of people). But today seemed to demonstrate that they don’t have a huge willingness to use all those guns.