1/So I finally went down the rabbit hole to figure out the source of the oft-cited claim that 3rd grade is the key benchmark for reading on grade level... https://twitter.com/jerseyjazzman/status/1351736789912969218
2/ I believe the primary source is this 2011 report which tracked a cohort of kids and indeed found that low reading levels predicted increased chances of dropping out  https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED518818.pdf
3/ Digging in further, though, it turns out when the study refers to "3rd grade" reading scores it actually means a combination of 2nd, 3rd, and 4th grade reading scores!
4/This further undermines the idea that there something particular about 3rd grade reading that is significant -- I have not seen a strong justification for this suggestion, even though it continues to shape policy.
5/Now, *to be clear,* we need to help kids who have fallen behind academically, whether that's in 1st grade, or 3rd grade or 10th grade. And it is very clear that COVID has had a tangible negative effect — this is a huge problem that is affecting a vast swath of children.
7/7 But I do share  @Jerseyjazzman's concern about the narrative around the 3rd grade benchmark, implying that it is a make or break year.
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